Joe’s Weather World: Ill-timed rain for some possible Saturday (8/28)

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It’s Friday and today will be the 16th straight day without rain in the KC metro. This is the longest stretch of dry weather since late 2017. Granted there were some storms a couple of weeks ago on the east side of the Metro but many didn’t get a drop of rain from the Downtown KC area westwards.

Today will also be another day with highs into the 90s…that will be 7 straight. The last time we had that many consecutive days of 90°+ was back in July of 2017.

The weekend will be cooler…perhaps significantly so tomorrow…it depends on the rain situation and it’s conceivable that tomorrow is not such a great day for many areas from KC southwards as rain could be a bigger issue. I’ve been nervous about this for the past couple of days and the data last night isn’t that great for a perfectly dry day for parts of the region.

Better rain chances come along (widespread) on Monday into Tuesday.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and hot with highs around 93°. Heat index near 100°

Tonight: There may be a few showers/storms out there later tonight but the coverage won’t be that great. Lows around 70°

Tomorrow: This is sort of a tricky day. There is the possibility of a disturbance that will be coming eastwards on the KS side and moving through at least part of the area. This could create rain that may end up being a nuisance at times, especially from KC southwards. It will be a close call. Temperatures may struggle as well depending on the rain in the area. Highs in the 70s to near 80°

Sunday: Should be a drier day with highs 80-85°

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Discussion:

Well we certainly need the moisture. So far only .64″ but we won’t finish the month with that as the chances of rain will be on the increase. Somewhat overnight…not counting on much…and a bit more tomorrow…that has a better chance. Then the best chance will come on Monday to finish off the month.

The issue of the rain is the timing. Tonight a cold front will be working through. It’s coming at a bad time of the overnight with limited instability. There may be some post frontal showers though…that might get some of us before daybreak…but the amounts look minor and the coverage is spotty.

Tomorrow though is a bit of a headache. That front will allow cooler air to seep in…so highs tomorrow should be about 10° or more cooler than today. The air will be drying out as well…just how fast the air dries out though will play a role in whether or not there are additional showers developing tomorrow morning.

There will be a disturbance developing later today in eastern CO. That will be moving through KS tonight and into central KS tomorrow morning. Then from there is moves towards the ESE. This creates an issue for us because IF the air mass doesn’t dry out in general…this disturbance may be able to generate some showers/storms as it comes closer to the area.

The higher chances of this happening may end up south of the Metro…but it’s a close call and a somewhat tenuous forecast for tomorrow that could end up a bit worse that what we may think. So be aware of the chance of some nuisance rains, especially from the Metro southwards.

The drier air will be flowing in however and dew points will drop into the 50s tomorrow night. This means a cooler start on Sunday before the moisture starts to increase again thanks to return flow. This return flow of moisture should interact with a wave coming through the Plains and create more rain with another cold front coming towards the region. This rain should be a bit more widespread and beneficial although there has been a decrease in the totals the models are cranking out. So hopefully we could get about 1/4″ or so on Monday.

More chances come into Tuesday and Wednesday. All these chances will keep temperatures from warming up…not a bad thing to finish August and start September. Highs may only be in the 70s for a couple of days depending on the rain situation from Monday into Wednesday.

Hopefully we end up with at least 1/2″ from all these chances…perhaps more. we need it.

The feature photo for today is from ‎Casie Barker Garrison‎

Joe

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