Joe’s Weather World: June may be a toasty month (TUE-6/2)

Weather

Another breezy warm to borderline hot day is expected in the region. Winds yesterday were in the 30-35 MPH range…today the winds might be a bit less…more in the 20-30 MPH range. Dew points, which help us get an idea of the moisture in the air weren’t terrible yesterday…mostly low>mid 60s. Today we’ll be in the same range so it won’t be overly muggy.

The dew points will be increasing Wednesday into the weekend. Temperatures will likely be well into the 80s to near 90°. Did you know that typically our 1st 90° day is May 27th? So far the highest we’ve been is 88° back on April 8th.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm with highs into the upper 80s. Heat indices in the lower 90s.

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows near 70°

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and hot with highs approaching 90° with higher dew points making the heat index closer to 95°+ during the afternoon. There is a chance of late day storms into the evening

Thursday: Clouds may be around to nudge the temperatures down somewhat. That remains to be seen…highs 85-90°. Depending on what happens on Wednesday there may be a few storms around as well.

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Discussion:

June can be a very hot month around here. 2016…2012 and 2018 were pretty darn toasty. Indications are after a cooler month of May (some 2.6° below average) that June will certainly start hotter…and the heat may be one of the lingering things around here for awhile.

The latest 8-14 day forecast has this idea…

and if you want to take a look at the monthly outlook for June…here you go.

So yeah…we may be trending warm.

Meanwhile the rain chances this week are by no means set in stone. There will be a weakening front heading towards KC on Wednesday. We’ll see how far south it can actually get before falling apart. IF it gets to us…storm risks will ramp up to some extent. IF it fades in northern MO…we may not get much of anything.

With that said though the pattern on Wednesday into the end of the week will favor storms…and those storms will create rain cooled pockets of air…that in turn can create new storms along the leading edge of the outflows…and so on and so on.

That is a major complication to figuring out the later Wednesday potential. Some model data indeed brings rain and storms (potentially severe) into the region as the mid>late afternoon unfolds. We’ll certainly have the heat…we’ll have dew points well into the 60s and we’ll have a ton of instability…so all the ingredients are there.

The issue is will the trigger get this far south…the cold front itself?

Some models say yes…others no. The models that handle outflow pushes of air are sort of confused and are suffering from a process we call “convective feedback”.

This occurs when the models generate convection, or large pools of rain and then also generate various cool air boundaries which re-fire convection and the model essentially “freaks out”.

Let me show you what I’m referring too in last nights higher resolution NAM model. It starts at 1PM on Wednesday and goes through 7AM on Thursday. Everything sort of makes sense until…you’ll see it.

See how the convection fires close to KC…then because of outflows it moves and redevelops from the east to the west. There is no guarantee that will happen…then northern MO goes all in with storms…and it turns into a mess.

So again we’l be watching Wednesday. There is a slight risk for severe weather out from the SPC.

To make matters a bit more uncertain…what happens on Wednesday evening may dictate the potential of storms on Thursday…at some point that front, if it dies in northern MO will start re-organizing and coming back south I think. So storm chances may be with use for a couple of more days.

Finally a couple of more things about the “lack” of severe weather in the Plains…

The feature photo comes from Elizabeth via twitter. We did have a pretty sunset last night.

Joe

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