Joe’s Weather World: Just how warm can we get next week? (FRI-10/30)

Weather

The month is almost over…Halloween is Saturday and we have a somewhat unique Blue Moon (the 2nd full moon of the month) as an added layer to the treats out there. It’s very unusual to have a 2nd full moon timed to Halloween. The next one is in 2039 I think (on Halloween). The next Blue Moon is on 8/30 in 2023.

The weather, which hasn’t been pretty lately is getting much better. There will be a rather decent cold front rush through tomorrow evening…that will send temperatures down some 15-20° compared to Saturday and when you add in the wind on Saturday night and Sunday…it will be brisk. Overall though the pattern is a warm one…with downsloping winds and much warmer air overtaking the Plains.

The models always underestimate these types of warm-ups…I was very aggressive in bring the mid 70s into the area during the middle of the week next week. We may also go on record high temperature watch for next Thursday especially.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and seasonable. It’s been so cool lately that you may not know that we average the lower 60s for highs…and that’s where we will get today. Highs 60-65°. Breezy as well.

Tonight: Clear and not as cold as this morning with lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Sunny and windy! Gusts to 30 MPH possible. Warmer too with highs 65-70°

Sunday: Turning cooler and blustery…highs around 50°

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Discussion:

This will be the last blog for a few days as the weather is again dictating the blog content. Not much weather is going to happen next week of significance at least. Warm days…abundant sunshine and great fall weather is on tap for the area.

The forecast of highs into the 70s in November isn’t exactly something that happens every year, despite the average high being around 60° for the 1st few days of the month. Take a look at the number of days with 70s or higher in November since 2000.

Over the last couple of Novembers…there haven’t been any. You can see though that it’s not unheard of really.

Now 80° temperatures in November are something that are pretty rare. Since 2000 there really haven’t been any except for one or two.

As a matter of fact the number of 80° or higher days are rather few in the big picture. Here are ALL the Novembers with highs in the 80s.

Only 18 total. The last being back in 2006.

The reason why we’re going for a milder regime around here is because of the combination of wind…and warmer air aloft. When you have a lot of wind, like what I’m expecting for several days next week…especially starting on Wednesday…you get what’s referred to as a lot of “mixing”.

Think of it this way…if you put a few ingredients in a blender…some very cold and some very warm…the layers of ingredients will maintain there chilliness or warmth for awhile. IF you turn ON the blender and “mix” all the ingredients together…the temperatures will even out quickly and become more homogenous. This is “mixing”.

With the atmosphere though…winds are the mixing button. Forecasts can be made or broken by the amount of mixing in the atmosphere as the air tries to attain being the same temperature. This mixing is most realized here at the surface…more wind…means the warmer air above us, combined with the land getting warmer with the sunshine…and you get full on warmth. Less wind…or cloud cover…diminishes this.

An added boost to the temperatures is the direction the winds are coming from…especially IF they have a westerly component. That is referred to as a downsloping wind. The elevation changes from the Rockies to KC…and from western KS to eastern KS…several thousand feet as a matter of fact. The air then comes “down the slope” and as it does so it compresses. That creates warmth…and that adds to a warm weather forecast.

These ingredients are forecast to be present next week. The models show the set-up but typically underestimate the amount of “mixing” so you have to use a bit of creativity and figure out roughly how much wind…then do some calculations to the potential temperature pop that you can get given sunshine…enough wind and dry ground conditions.

There are other small factors that can add a degree or two including the color of the ground believe it or now. We’re losing our greenness as the leaves drop off the trees…the the land overall is taking a more brownish hue as the seasons change…that too can enable an extra degree or so.

We fight though the dropping sun angle as the seasons change as well. We essentially next week have the same sun angle as we do in the early part of February.

So there are a variety of factors that we try and figure out. Other forecasters will strictly just look at model output…and in time the models will start to trend closer to what I think will happen…as long as the factors all come together…I’d be surprised IF we don’t get into the 70s for 1-3 days next week.

This is also a very dry pattern and it may not rain again (probably won’t) till at least NEXT weekend if not somewhat beyond that. There are signs of moisture around the 9th or so…and that has been my target date for the last few days as I’ve mentioned on the air.

So a warmer and drier pattern is ahead after the coldness of the past 7 days or so.

Nationwide the weather overall will be good too although there will be some chilly temperatures early next week in the eastern quarter of the country.

Interesting to note as well when I just looked at the super long range EURO data for the next 6 weeks…that snow shows up again towards mid-month and beyond perhaps. The GFS is sort of sniffing on something as well after the 10th or so…we’ll see about that.

OK that’s it for today…enjoy the fall weather that many have wanted and were worried that we wouldn’t get after the miserable weather week this week.

Chip Houser has the feature photo of the day.

Joe

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