Joe’s Weather World: Keep watering that grass (FRI-10/2)

Weather

We dropped to 35° this morning and missed tying a record low by just 1°. The record is 34° set in 2004. There was some patchy frost out there, especially towards the north of KC…St Joe dropped to 31°. Their record is 28° in 2004. So near record cold this morning.

Overall though the pattern leans mild to warm. Next week is going to be phenomenal it appears and the pattern is mild to warm through the middle of the month. We’re not done with the 80s…they should come back…as a favorable downslope flow will set up a couple of times over the next couple of weeks (perhaps more than a couple).

The overall pattern is dry as well…aside from the rain chance early Saturday…there isn’t much showing up for the foreseeable future…perhaps something towards the middle of the month.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs in the low>mid 60s

Tonight: Increasing clouds with showers possible after 2AM or so. Not a lot of rain expected. Lows in the mid>upper 40s

Tomorrow: Fleeting rains in the morning with lower chances after about 10AM in the Metro. Then some sunshine and pleasant with highs in the mid 60s

Sunday: Nice with highs in the low>mid 60s.

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Discussion:

Our temperatures for the next few days will be below average, at least for highs but next week and beyond will make up for that I think…and then some.

When I see this on the EURO model…for next week…Tuesday into Sunday…

and this for the most of the week of the 12th…through the 17th…

well going for a mild to warm outlook seems like a no-brainer.

This though may start becoming more of an issue through mid-month. The overall dryness that I’m expecting.

GFS Ensemble moisture anomalies. Brown is less moisture than average

That’s a dry forecast for a good part of the country. Some relief though for the Pacific Northwest.

It’s also for the KC region a likely rather boring forecast. Aside from some ups and downs from a temperature standpoint there may not be a lot to talk about for the next 10+ days or so.

Concerning the rain chance tomorrow morning…well it’s there but there are issues for sure. A lot of dry air below 10,000 feet won’t be helpful. Main rains up towards northern MO also won’t be helpful for the KC area as the main lift with this is displaced towards the NW of the Metro. Some areas in northern MO may see close to 1/4″ on the high side.

Closer to KC…not as much expected, if anything at all really. It’s a decent wave coming down from the northwest…but again it’s coming into a pretty dry air mass…and that could be a challenge for it. No model gives the Metro more than 1/10″…and most data supports only a few hundredths of an inch, if even that. So I’m not overly excited to get much of anything around these parts.

Whatever it is, or isn’t…it should wrap up pretty quickly tomorrow and we should enjoy a nice afternoon as temperatures warm back up into the low>mid 60s.

Could be worse…look what happened this morning in the upper peninsula of MI.

Yup it snowed.

Meanwhile in the Northeast part of the country…

OK a push but the seasons are changing. I understand the colors are spectacular in the New England area right now too!

By the way…after a bit of a lull…the tropics are starting to stir again in an area that usually sees activity in October.

I believe the next named storm would be Gamma in the Greek alphabet.

That’s it for today…have a great weekend and I’ll see you again Monday!

The feature photo is from Tiffany Lanier‎

Joe

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