Over the next few days…through Tuesday probably…you’re going to start to notice the winds more and more. Today they’ll be increasing a bit in the afternoon…then tomorrow through Tuesday morning they’ll be blowing pretty good…especially tomorrow with gusts to 35+ MPH possible…
The other issue, at least for overnight is some rain…perhaps a few rumbles too…this will be associated with a fast moving cold front that will zip through the region and usher in somewhat cooler air tomorrow. The bottom line is a lot of air will be moving through the Plains over the next 5 days…and a bigger front is due early Thursday that will definitely catch your attention and probably force you to pull out the winter coats…all before Halloween.
Today: Fog gradually dissipates today…more slowly on the MO side though. Breezy conditions in the afternoon with highs well into the 60s
Tonight: Rain likely, some thunder as well, with lows in the 40s
Monday: Blustery with mostly cloudy skies developing. Highs in the 50s
Tuesday: Breezy but brighter with highs closer to 60°
So far this month we’re running some 2° below average…and this week, especially later in the week…will not help increase that number all that much.
Several cold fronts are coming…one tonight…a stronger one later Wednesday into Thursday AM…conceivably sending lows down into the 20s Friday morning depending on the cloud situation…
The overall forecast pattern…translated into winter would be an exciting one for sure…numerous systems dropping into the SW US and coming out into the Plains region…would be really getting my attention in late November and December for sure. As is the models are trying every so often to crank out snowflakes close by…even in October…so the pattern is active.
The western US has been very cool by October standards…it’s been snowing in the higher elevations…and the temperatures have been breaking numerous records on the low side out there…
Here is how the rankings set up out there for coldest October temperatures…the #’s indicated 3rd coldest…8th coldest etc.
Meanwhile typically there is a ying and yang to the temperatures in the USA…and that is the case again this month…go into the SE part of the country and you get the opposite…some of the warmest weather in October record history is occurring.
Those 1’s mean the warmest on record for the month (so far). A lot of 1’s in FL and AL.
When you put the whole thing together…through the 19th…you come up with this…
You can easily see the contrast from the west to the southeast US.
So what does this remind me of…last year to a very large extent…although the cold was colder in the northern Plains and the warmth more expansive up the eastern US coast region.
Longer term looking towards the end of October into the 1st week of November…shows the same sort of idea…this is a 5 day average…
Why is all this important…because where you see the stark contrast…that is a focus for storm tracks…and IF you carry that idea into the winter…well you can see my interest.
Back to the current situation…and that would be our next cold front coming through tonight.
As that front moves through…rain is likely…here is the short term HRRR model…this should auto-update for you. For timing purposes…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM…03Z is 10PM and 06Z is 1AM etc.
Farther south severe weather is possible including some fast moving nighttime tornadoes
That threat shifts eastbound tomorrow.
Locally I guess there could be a few stronger storms before 12AM tonight…maybe some hail with those…smaller stones I think.
The issue on Monday will be the stronger winds…this is coming about because of a seasonably strong low pressure area across the upper Midwest…
The storm by later tomorrow (Monday) will be in the upper Midwest…the black lines on the map below show the isobars…or lines of equal pressure. The more isobars crammed into a smaller area…the more the wind blows…
See in the above map how the isobars are more tightly packed north of here…now take a look at the forecast wind gusts…both of these maps are for 7PM Monday.
A stronger front is coming on later in the week…more on that tomorrow.
Our feature photo comes from Robin Anderson of the foggy start for some this morning.