Joe’s Weather World: Messy weekend rain chances (a lot possible) (WED-9/18)

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Good Wednesday morning to you..our weather has been very repetitive these last few days…89°…or 90° is a pretty good forecast again today. It will slowly change into Friday…and then over the weekend the rain situation will be come more widespread and heavier in the region and while we’ve been pretty dry lately (not unusually so really)…we may have some flooding rains for parts of the area this weekend.

Obviously with all sorts of great outdoor things happening…sports-wise and fair-wise…the forecast is of utmost concern…and while specifics are tough to come by reliably right now…both days are going to have rain. Timing the heaviest and steadiest weekend rain though is still uncertain. The set-up though is very apparent.

  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and muggy with highs approaching 90°

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows near 70°

Thursday: Not much of a change..perhaps a few storms in northern MO. Highs upper 80s

Friday: There may be a few spotty afternoon/early evening storms. Don’t count on rain at this point. Highs in the mid 80s

This weekend: Rain chances all weekend long. It won’t rain all day Saturday. Heavy downpours possible especially Saturday night into Sunday. All outdoor events may be impacted at some point this weekend.

  • Discussion:

A warm and humid flow of air continues in the Plains today. Temperatures average out in the upper 70s for highs but we’ve been 10° above average now for several days in a row and today and tomorrow won’t be much of an exception, if at all. We are 5+° above average so far this month…and we’ll be adding on to that as well through Friday.

The “big picture” trends are still warm though as we finish out the month…or at least for the next 10+ days…there will be a couple of cooler days mixed in there though as opposed to the straight heat/humidity we’ve seen.

With that said let’s get to the messy rain situation.

Yesterday a tropical depression briefly intensified into Tropical Storm Imelda down towards Galveston. This was a “storm” for about 1-3 hours before it made landfall…so the winds we’re that big of a deal. The rain though was and still is. There are some reports of 20″ of rain down there already with more possible.

Here is radar out of Houston.

and the latest Dopper totals. Note the heaviest right along the coastal areas SW of Houston.

The reason why this is important is that some of this moisture will start moving northbound over the next 3 days. We start getting into the leading edge of it on Friday and then get the full dose over the weekend. In other words the atmosphere will get very soupy. Late September moisture in the atmosphere is typically not overly high…with what is expected to happen…the atmosphere may be loaded up with roughly twice the “average” atmospheric moisture…that is a BIG number for this time of the year…and why I’m concerned about heavy rains.

We still need something to get all that moisture into motion…and that something is a cold front that will get towards the region over the weekend and likely stall nearby somewhere. That is a problem because with us in broad SW to NE flow aloft…a series of disturbances will be coming up from the western Plains and flying on by..any one of which should create areas of rain and with so much moisture in the atmosphere locally…that could and should mean heavy downpours.

I don’t necessarily want to get into specifics regarding the timing of the rains…it may be a bit off and on Saturday…but I did want to give you some clues about totals with both the EURO and the GFS model on board for nearly 1-2″ and my suspicion is that they are undergoing the potential.

1st the EURO…

Now the GFS

The GFS ensembles are more bullish on the rain totals…and are probably the better approach at this point. Interesting to note that the GFS Ensembles run the older versions of the model as opposed to the regular GFS model that is considered “operational” and running the new version.

Regardless of all this…a slow moving or stalled front…a ton of moisture in the atmosphere…a series of disturbances coming up from the SW and WSW…it all means rain and heavy rains in parts of the area.

Again this may impact all outdoor events including the Chiefs game on Sunday. Yesterday’s data showed that the game would be under clearing skies…last night’s data shows a slower progression of the rains…and that means even the game may be wet as well. Prepare ahead of time with rain gear and let’s hope things speed up a bit.

Back to the tropics…very much cooking right now…

Humberto is still going pretty good.

There there is Jerry in the Atlantic as well.

and in the eastern Pacific Ocean…it’s popping too!

with 3 and potentially a 4th named storm on the horizon.

Our feature photo comes from Davis Paint (@TheDavisPaintCo)


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