Joe’s Weather World: More comfortable air is coming (FRI-8/14)

Weather

Another muggy day is coming with temperatures expected to top off near 90° this afternoon. Pretty close to average. Today’s average high is 88° and it’s possible we can actually go above that and have an “above” average high temperature for the 1st time in almost 3 weeks.

There is humidity relief coming tomorrow. These fronts coming into the area aren’t as strong as what we saw a couple of weeks ago with record and near record lows. The air mass is cooler for sure but not as cool as the one early in the month. Don’t get me wrong…it will be comfortable and that is a good thing.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonably with highs near 90°

Tonight: A chance of storms/showers later overnight. No severe weather is expected. Lows dropping towards daybreak into the 60s

Tomorrow: Not as hot or humid with highs in the mid 80s

Sunday: About the same.

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Discussion:

So far this August…we’re running about 3.7° below average. I think most would say it’s been a pretty seasonable month…but the reality is that it hasn’t been overly hot at all. It’s been quite some time since we’ve hit 90° officially up at KCI…going back to the last week of July.

The pattern overall isn’t going to be hot for awhile it appears.. We’re going to go into NW flow, if not NNW flow aloft into next week. This is a good thing for getting more comfortable air coming this way. Take a look at the flow of air up towards about 18,000 feet.

The area of yellow and orange centered out in UT represents the persistent dome of hot air that’s crushed the monsoonal rains out there and enabled the Desert SW to have one of their hottest summers on record. Yesterday Phoenix hit 115° (again) for a record high and Tucson hot 111° missing their all time August high by 1°.

It’s been nasty hot out in a very hot part of the country this summer. With that heat dome there…and the dip into the eastern US allowing cooler air to spill into the northern Plains and Great Lakes region…we’re actually in pretty decent shape locally.

The pattern is also a mostly dry one BUT with that type of flow, coming from the NNW to the SSE…there will be a tendency for clusters of storms to fire in the Dakotas and move towards the SSE and SE. IF they can hold together…there could be some “surprise” showers/clouds moving towards us. Model data is typically way to slow in opening up these chances. The data this morning off the EURO model shows a disturbance coming down early Wednesday and the GFS shows one later Tuesday…so I’m beginning to wonder if maybe we can get some rain here early next week.

The problem with overly committing to this is that these disturbances are coming down into lower dew point air so the rain production may be weakening as this occurs. It’s something to watch…and with clouds helping it may keep us in the cool air too. So essentially more below average highs are coming for awhile.

There are signs that the end of the month will be hotter once again.

Finally…we talked a lot about the derecho that hit IA and IL this week…there is another story there too that isn’t great for the farmers…and that is a localized drought that is affecting the western part of the state.

Farmers there can’t catch a break.

This is an area of the country that some may not realize needs more attention to get help…the power outage situation is not good…getting better but still not good.

There are still over 175,000 customers without power up there.

That’s it for today…and for the weekend too. Next blog will come on Monday…enjoy the lower dew point air…and it might be time to drag the sprinkler around a bit.

Pretty shot today from Chuck Nehring down in SE Miami Co…

Joe

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