The overnight rain, with some thunder has come and mostly gone from the KC Metro area…although there is still lingering rain out there that will gradually diminish this morning. The rest of the day will see just some scattered activity out there, with the potential for smaller more robust cells across northern MO…northeast of KC it appears.
For the Metro though…amounts overnight ranged from 1/2″ to almost 3″ on the west side of the KC area. What happens the rest of today though won’t be as organized despite an area of low pressure coming right up the State Line into the region.
The next chance of more widespread activity is Thursday it appears and then that should sort of do it for awhile. The rain will mostly shut down for about a week or so…and the heat and humidity will be building so it appears the 1st week of June will be a hot and humid week in the area.
Today: Cloudy skies with breaks in the afternoon. A few additional showers are possible at any time really but nothing organized, just more scattered stuff. Highs 70-75° assuming we get the breaks in the clouds.
Tonight: Clearing and pleasant with lows 55-60°. Some fog might develop…maybe.
Tomorrow: Mild and somewhat muggy. A few isolated storms are possible but it won’t be organized in the afternoon. Highs approaching 80°
Thursday: More widespread rain and storms likely. Highs in the 70s
Yesterday was an interesting day…the atmosphere was loaded with moisture…the turned into areas of very heavy rains…yet some didn’t have a drop. There was also some wind shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere that allowed some of the storms there were on the outskirts of the area to rotate…that created wall clouds…funnels in a few spots and even 2-3 brief, weak wispy tornado touchdowns. Those happened up towards the St Joe area…and out into central MO.
There were also a few areas that saw some tree damage. Again mainly across northern MO.
Then out towards Clinton Lake Dam (looking west into eastern Shawnee Co, KS) there was this.
A thin wispy funnel with perhaps a tornado. Tough to say for sure, and it was VERY weak but this happened last night at 8:15 PM.
So sort of an interesting day.
Today is a bit more muddled as far as rotating storms go. We need to see some things change including getting the sunshine to make a bigger appearance. The main risks appear to be more towards northern MO near and north of 36 highway for that to happen.
Radar this morning shows the main area of rain now into NE KS with some scattered showers around the rest of the area.
The key to getting anything more “interesting” will be how unstable the atmosphere can get this afternoon as a surface low moves up the state line. Clouds are all over the place right now.
I’m not sure how much clearing we’re going to get today…
IF northern MO does get more sunshine though…and the clouds get more vertical with more vigorous growth…it’s not out of the question there could be more wall clouds/funnel clouds up there. This is because there will be a surface low moving up the State Line area.
Areas near and northeast/east of the surface low are more vulnerable to low level wind shear…where the winds change directions in a more favorable way that would allow rotating storms. Odds are this favors areas near and north of 36 highway into northern MO towards the IA border and then farther northbound.
The SPC has this outlook with higher risks of perhaps a tornado into IA.
A whole upper level circulation is developing across OK over the next 24 hours. It will spin far enough away fro KC later on Thursday night to allow drier air to come in behind it…it will dry out the atmosphere, the dew points at the surface will come down nicely on Friday and we’re setting the state for a very nice weekend it appears.
A ridge in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be building into the area over the weekend. This is sort of the opposite of what we have right now. This will allow some nice weather locally to hold through the weekend it appears with some hotter weather building into the area early next week.
It will be warmer and with all the moisture in the ground, more humid too. You should start feeling this more on Sunday…and certainly after that it appears. We’ll be talking about the heat index again next week I think. Highs well into the 80s are likely…heat index values may be closer to 95° for a day or two next week. So be alert for that.
The feature photo comes from Marilyn Nichols out in Richmond, MO. Great example of a wall cloud in Ray county. It never produced but it is a step to getting a tornado.