Joe’s Weather World: Needed rain coming…we’re just waiting (FRI-11/6)

Weather

It’s Friday and more warm days are coming…in reality there will be a brief incursion of chilly air on Tuesday with our next significant change in air masses…but the overall pattern is rather mild and not abnormally cold.

Temperatures so far this month are running nicely above average…and that won’t change too much either for awhile.

What we could use is some rain…and some is coming. Again it’s mostly a waiting game at this point but the chances appear to be about 100% on Tuesday.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly then partly cloudy this afternoon as the low level clouds thin/break apart as the day moves along. Temperatures will be slow to warm this morning then pop in the afternoon to 70-75° or so.

The clouds are going to be an issue for awhile today. While some areas will see more sunshine than others…it won’t be a terrible day.

Areas south of KC and north of KC look to see the most sunshine and milder temperatures whereas areas that have the clouds linger the longest will see temperatures struggle to around 70°.

Tonight will remain breezy and warm and while there will be clouds around over the weekend we should see somewhat faster clearing because of gusty winds stirring up the moist air a bit more.

So windy weather is expected over the weekend into Monday and Tuesday. These south winds will be increasing the surface moisture for the next few days. The moisture through the rest of the atmosphere though doesn’t really change too much through the weekend. This will though increase dramatically on Monday into Monday night..

This will be ahead of the change that we’ve been expecting for about a week now. A seasonably strong cold front will come through Monday night…and that will help set things into motion with moisture…a front and also a decently strong wave coming out of the Rockies and heading our way early Tuesday morning and moving towards eastern NE by Tuesday afternoon.

This is a great recipe for lift and setting things into motion of for rain and storms. The cold front itself won’t come through till around daybreak Tuesday, give or take a few hours. So we’ll probably have some sort of 12AM high or at least an early morning high Tuesday before falling in the rain and the colder air pouring into the area. At some point towards later in the afternoon we’ll be closer to a blustery 45°.

Rain totals look to be impressive but the issue is who gets the better thunderstorms. You can see how the models are fighting this…some areas close to 1.5″…others about 1/3rd of that. Here is the GFS from overnight.

and the EURO.

I have NO faith in the precise placement of the areas with heavier or lighter amounts BUT it shows the potential and that’s why I won’t be overly specific on this.

The front that comes through and the upper level wave really don’t have a strong connection to Canada. So mostly pacific air comes right in afterwards and that isn’t overly chilly. More seasonable perhaps…maybe not 75° type days…but a run towards 60° or above isn’t out of the question next week.

Then there is the issue of Eta down in the western Caribbean. This is now back over the warm waters and there is the potential of a re-strengthening storm over the next few days

You can see that Cuba and perhaps southern FL are in a potential path of this.

You can see how the rains stack up down there…and there could be a lot of rain.

There is some data that shows that Eta could become a hurricane again at some point in all this. Models have a lot of variance in where Eta eventually goes from western FL to back into the Gulf of Mexico and about everywhere in between.

I may take tomorrow off from the blog but odds are there will be a Sunday blog by lunch.

Have a great weekend.

Our feature photo is from Cindy DiCianni

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