Joe’s Weather World: Nothing to see here aside from the temperatures…rain…snow (THU-10/22)

Weather

What a day today. We missed tying our record high…which still stands at 87°…by 1°. I knew today we’d get close with the winds gusting to over 40 MPH stirring the atmosphere up quite a bit. The air that I showed you yesterday in eastern OK flew up our way this morning…clearing out that dense fog and allowing the temperatures to pop!

Now this is all ending as a strong cold front has moves through the region. IF you’re reading this on Thursday evening…it’s moving through…if you’re reading this on Friday…well…you know things have certainly changed.

Hey it could be worse…on this date in 1996…remember? The October Surprise snowstorm. As I’ve shown this week…it can snow in October…we average 2/10″ but that storm in 1996 was the biggest in October in KC weather history with widespread 3-8″ totals…on top of the trees that had all their leaves on them. It was a heavy wet snow…which is typical for early Fall (if it snows) and that created the power outage situation. Ahhh the memories. I think our apartment was without power for about 18 hours or so…and I remember seeing all the transformers popping/arcing.

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Forecast:

Friday: Blustery and colder(!). Highs in the mid>upper 40s with gusty north winds of 20-30 MPH making it feel much chillier. Any showers will end by 9AM.

Friday night: Clearing out and very cold. Coldest so far this fall with a heavy frost and a hard freeze likely. We may tie a record low for Saturday at 26°

Saturday: Actually not too bad…sun and clouds…less wind…and cool with highs near 50°

Sunday: Clouds lower and thicken…drizzle and rain develops…chilly with temperatures holding in the mid 40s or so.

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Discussion:

Well so much for that summer weather. Furnace to AC to furnace again!

The front is moving through the Metro as I type this on Thursday evening. Temperatures maxed out at 86° at KCI…now we’re down to 62° and tanking,.

The blue line above is the front at around 8PM…the numbers in red are the temperatures.

The rain situation as I type this is sort of lacking really. There is activity on radar but it’s not exactly that widespread.

The thought is that the activity will be scattered through midnight then hopefully expand substantially overnight behind the front. That could be some very chilly showers tomorrow AM.

Temperatures in NE right now are in the 30-40° range…that cold air moves in overnight tonight at the surface although aloft it will take a bit longer. IF ( big if) IF there is leftover drops around tomorrow after about 9AM…it’s not totally out of the question that there may be a few flakes or ice pellets somewhere in the area.

Let’s skip to the end of the weekend.

A significant dip in the jet stream will move into the northern Plains and eventually extend down through the SW part of the country.

Take a look at the waves up around 18,000 feet. There are 3 noteworthy ones…and the one that is splitting off the one in the northern Plains…you see it towards ID…that’s the one that will be watched as it consolidates into the SW part of the country.

What will happen is that the wave towards ID will help to push the wave off of southern CA towards the ENE. The winds above us at that level will be blowing from the WSW towards the ENE. So that ejecting wave will come towards the Plains and create a broad area of lift and in time a saturated atmosphere…meaning rain will develop.

Aloft we’re borderline able to get snowflakes to form…during the 1st part of the day on Monday as the wave starts moving into the Plains generating lift and perhaps some patches of precip this far south. By no means is this a slam dunk snow set-up right now…it’s certainly worth a wintry mix mention…and we’ll need to see IF the atmosphere cools down more later in the day top support potential snow or something late Monday into early Tuesday morning…it’s on the table.

Can we get an accumulation? Well never say never. IF there is something coming our way Mnday night or early Tuesday…that would be a favorable time to sticking snow with temperatures near or perhaps slightly above 32°

There are differences in the model data…and while the EURO was gosh awful on the Sunday set-up a couple of days ago…it’s now in catch-up mode. The GFS has a lot happening on Sunday, perhaps too much with a cooling atmosphere…decent snow/mix falling through Monday (it’s been pretty consistent on this idea aside from a hiccup or two). As a result of all that it’s actually cranking out a couple inches plus more in northern MO.

I have this sneaking suspicion that something wintery will come…but I have no faith in how much and exactly when it will happen.

Then beyond this mess…what exactly happens to the soon to be upper level low that will be cut off for awhile in the SW part of the country? It will get kicked out in time…odds favor perhaps a week from today…by then I think the cold air will be dislodged…so whatever would fall would likely be rain I think…perhaps on Thursday.

For what it’s worth the EURO still have a rather active pattern into very early November before things relax after that.

Finally some good and well deserved news for the FOX 4 Weather Team and some of the other staff members concerning our coverage of the Linwood Tornado back in May of 2019

Notice how many nominees are in KC…KC stations did a great job with what happened that day…and no doubt helped save lives. Kudos to all!

Our feature photo comes from Eudora, KS from Cassie Helm.

Joe

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