Joe’s Weather World: Numerous rain chances into Friday (WED-7/29)

Weather

As I start this blog, already we’re seeing the way summer rains are around this part of the country. Rain has developed mostly from I-70 northwards…south of there it’s mostly cloudy. That’s sort of the way the next few days are going to go…at times parts of the area will be totally dry for several hours at other times parts of the area will be receiving moderate to heavy rain.

The hope is that in the end most ares get some decent rain…but who gets the most and when that comes is still very murky.

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Forecast:

Today: Showers and storms are possible at any time but there will be quite a few areas that get very little rain and times when some are getting rain and others aren’t. Highs will vary from the 80s for areas that don’t get that much rain to perhaps 70s where the clouds and the rain are a bit more persistent.

Tonight: Chance of rain at times…lows near 70

Thursday: Rainy and stormy at times with locally heavy rains possible

Friday: Highest rain chances are during the 1st part of the day…drier towards northern MO. Highs near 80°

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Discussion:

So perhaps we need to start out with what we know…

  1. there will be numerous chances of rain through Friday morning (at least).
  2. The atmosphere is getting very juicy. That means that the rains may be locally heavy at times
  3. Some areas may receive over 3″ of rain…
  4. The rain may be heavy enough to create localized flooding at times
  5. There will be hours at a time when nothing is really happening.
  6. Overall just rather iffy to make outdoor plans for a couple of days
  7. Temperatures will remain below average for quite some time
  8. As of this writing there is no flash flood watch in effect (that may change) because who gets how much rain is unknown with any confidence.
  9. Severe weather is unlikely

So that is what we know now what we don’t know for sure…

  1. timing this all out…when it rains and when it doesn’t
  2. how much roughly falls where. Amounts will vary from about 1.4-1/2″ to over 3-4″. Who gets what is a question
  3. when exactly this winds down…my feeling is this sort of ends and moves away around or before lunch on Friday…some data holds on to the rain in the Metro a bit longer though.
  4. where the highest flooding risk really is. Some areas on the north and east side got heavy rains last week…others got very little. Areas on the south side can handle several inches of rain (assuming it’s not coming in 1-2 hours…which it may in spots).

I should probably end the blog there…but I won’t.

This is all coming about because of an upper level wave that will gradually carve out into the Plains into Friday. Various areas of lift will be moving in from the west and southwest into Friday. That creates areas of lift and then we get areas of rain. These areas of rain will be moving east and northeast towards the Metro.

Sometimes they will be widespread…sometimes they will be more scattered. Here is the current radar…

As I type this…9AM or so…most of the rain is north of I-70 but there are areas of rain developing towards the south of here that should migrate northwards. From a regional standpoint…

Farther south of I-70 there are thin spots in the clouds…it may not last though.

The main part of the incoming wave is still out towards the western Plains…in time that will drop through towards the west of the area…until that moves far enough away…we have to at least keep the chance of rain in the forecast.

Model data suggests that the best “lift” with all this will wind down before lunch on Friday. So that is when the rains should start to exit the area. Overall the weekend looks pretty OK…still not as warm as average and I can’t rule out some isolated rains especially on Sunday.

The latest forecast from the WPC shows this…from roughly 1PM today trough Friday 1PM

Again with the potential of convection and heavier rain rates…there will be higher totals in spots but exactly where remains to be seen

Our feature photo comes from Adam Michael in North KC this morning of the sunrise.

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