Joe’s Weather World: Perfect early fall days (and warm ones too) (MON-10/5)

Weather

Happy Monday! It’s going to be a windy day in the area today but the overall pattern is a mild one for the next 5-10 days or so…and the dry weather continues to be a trend as well. Very little to no rain is expected into the weekend…and next week isn’t that exciting either. These are trends that have been expected for awhile

The temperatures, after several days (7 out of the last 8) will also do a reversal and trend above average for quite a few days. Our average highs this week are around 70° or so…we should be above that every day…into next week.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and windy, gusts may approach 30+ MPH. Highs in the mid 70s

Tonight: Fair and not as cold with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Sunny and pleasant with highs near 80°. Not that windy.

Wednesday: Warmer with highs in the mid 80s.

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Discussion:

It’s not as if there will be no weather changes this week…it’s that there will be no significant changes this week. There will be a front or two come through, but with such a dry atmosphere rain isn’t expected. There will be periodic drops in the temperatures from day to day but the net overall effect is a developing warmer than average pattern that will have lasting power I think.

Here is the EURO forecast temperature trends.

The GFS goes out a bit farther and has the same idea…

That’s a lot of warm air ahead…and during this time of the year…the surface moisture can be lacking…so there won’t be a lot of moist air at the surface which means pleasantly mild to warm days without the summer humidity.

Dew points this week will be predominantly in the 50s…so that is rather reasonable.

The NWS in Pleasant Hill came out with a tweet this morning to put some of the warmth into perspective…

So really this won’t be unusual for KC…especially during the 1st part of October!

Here’s the thing though…take a look at (and granted this is a long ways off and probably not perfect) this day 15 forecast for the temperatures at 5,000 feet…

That’s a lot of warm air at the end of the model run…and this would be the 19th. So yeah there will be periodic fronts coming…and perhaps a day or two below average…but there aren’t really any signs of real cold air coming. There may be a quick hitting Canadian type air mass towards mid month that’s in and out in a day or two…but again the “overall” trend is mild.

Rain is not exactly a trend that will be something that’s talked about it appears.

The models are trying to sniff something perhaps towards mid month…

The GFS has something but not that much…

Meanwhile the tropics are going…there are two tropical storms being watched…Gamma and Delta. We’re now well into the Greek letters. Delta seems to be the main concern for intensification and potential landfall towards the Gulf region.

Delta would be down towards the lower left on the above animation. Gamma is the one towards the Yucatan area with the distinct swirl. It is barely a tropical storm (45 MPH winds) and may weaken farther today.

Delta will be the main news item this week especially if it intensifies.

The water temperatures down there are warm obviously and actually above average, especially around Delta…interesting to note that as DElta approaches land towards the end of the week it will be coming into cooler than average water…a leftover of the recent tropical systems that have churned over the Gulf waters.

This area of the Caribbean and Gulf is the more favored area for development during this time of the year…and certainly this season has been a busy one there.

Our feature photo comes from Seri Mills…nice shot of circumstantial arc

Blogs will be infrequent this week with the lack of weather happening.

Joe

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