Joe’s Weather World: Powerful cold front likely next week (WED-9/2)

Weather

A foggy start this morning in many areas…nothing too crazy but there is some locally dense fog out there. We’ve now turned the calendar into September, the start of meteorological fall. While the astronomical season starts in a few more weeks…we’re now, for data purposes really, considering this fall. That goes till the end of November.

Meteorological summer was the 61st warmest…and the 44th wettest with a big push during the last few days with rain. We have over 130 years of data for KC.

It will more or less feel like summer for the next 5 or so days…but there is a question when it stops feeling like summer and starts feeling like the middle of fall. There is a strong cold front coming…but the timing is still a bit of an issue as I talked about last night on the news.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy. There may be a few isolated showers later today. Highs in the mid 80s. Muggy

Tonight: Fair and muggy with lows in the 65-70°

Tomorrow: A cold front is coming into the afternoon. We’ll warm up into the mid 80s ahead of the front then drop a few degrees in the afternoon. More importantly drier air (lower humidity) will surge into the area with a breezy north wind in the afternoon. There may be a few showers/storms south of KC after 3PM.

Friday: Nice. Lows in the mid 50s with highs around 80°.

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Discussion:

This is so 2020…yesterday I was watching radar around 1:30 pm when I noticed a cell up towards the north of Liberty that had a bit of rotation with it. It had that “look” for about 5 minutes or so before losing it’s rotation. It sort of reminded me of the cell up in Smithville a few weeks ago that created that brief tornado for a minute or so.

No warning was issued yesterday and it sort of just turned to mush. Well look what it ended up producing…for sue a wall cloud…almost for sure some sort of wispy funnel and perhaps for a fleeting second or two…a brief tornado.

Danny Mcnair with this shot of the wall cloud…

Then his friend Jimmy Thomas might have caught the brief tornado. There certainly looks like there was a wispy funnel.

Just so 202.

Then while I was watching that miserable Royals game last night…there was a 5 minute downpour at the stadium. Sort of out of nowhere. A shower developed just west of the complex…poured down…then faded as soon as it moved away from the complex. There was a 16 minute rain delay.

So now that it’s September…it’s time to get more cold fronts and stronger cold fronts. This always happens in the fall season as the air in Canada gets colder while summer hangs on across the southern part of the US. This sets up a bigger thermal contrast and that means bigger storms moving along the jet stream and stronger cold fronts as that air from the north gets sucked southwards.

Tomorrow’s front is an OK one…really more or less an aid in chasing the humidity south for about 36 hours. That humidity and warmth returns over the weekend when highs pop to 85-90° again with muggy conditions.

The front after that though could be stronger…the timing though is still an issue. The EURO has been persistently slower with the fronts arrival…holding it off till Tuesday or even Wednesday to some degree. Here is the EURO forecast for Monday afternoon. The front is way north and we are in an actually hot air mass…90° or even higher potential.

With breezy SW winds…these are the forecast highs for Monday

The GFS on the other hand says wait a sec. The front is going to come into the area on Sunday evening and drop the temperatures on Monday.

That’s about a 20° difference in model data…and a big impact for Labor Day.

I’ll try and fine tune this idea a bit more tonight…but Monday appears to be a transitional day at some point and I have a tough time imagining how we don’t get at least some rain in this significant transition.

Odds are Tuesday is wet and chilly…like near 60° later in the day chilly…with rain too. This could actually happen earlier in the day…just depends on the position of the front and how things set-up. The EURO has a early season snow for the Rockies…on Tuesday. The GFS has some flakes perhaps but nothing major out there (not here). It does show you the potential though with the colder weather.

My thought is that for Monday…some sort of compromise is possible. Where we don’t get the full throttled cool shot of air until sometime into Tuesday. So perhaps we step down in temperatures on Monday and get chillier at some point on Tuesday. So maybe close to 75-80 on Monday…with near 60° by later Tuesday afternoon temperatures.

At some point next week…perhaps Wednesday or Thursday morning…we’re dropping into the 40s. Assuming we have clear skies to do it. This will be a pretty chilly air mass arriving before the middle of September.

So have the shorts out for the next 4-5 days…and then think about the sweaters.

It was a pretty morning with the fog out there…Craig Williams out in Lafayette County, in Lexington, caught the fog and the rising sun this morning.

Joe

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