Joe’s Weather World: Powerful March cyclone developing (SAT-3/28)

Weather

Yesterday and especially last night was interesting to see unfold in the weather world. Things went a bit askew regarding the storm coverage in the KC area…there were a few powerful storms…but they were out in central MO around the Jefferson City area…more on that in the discussion.

For us though…nothing really…some scattered rains and a lot of fog…but no real issues. Yesterday I was noting that things just didn’t seem right. I really think that happened on Thursday night influenced the set-up last night…and threw things off. Admittedly I’m surprised by the lack of rain (at least) but I wasn’t overly surprised by the lack of strong convection.

Today we have a handful of weather going on locally…winds (big)…sunshine (lots)…and then a decent but quick hitting cold front coming through. Tomorrow looks wonderful. Elsewhere today is a severe weather set-up of major proportions across the northern IL area. Will it pan out though?

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Forecast:

Today: Windy and sunny with temperatures in the 70s and winds gusting to about 35-50 MPH (perhaps even higher). Temperatures will start dropping in the evening with clouds coming in.

Tonight: Variable clouds and windy. turning cooler with daybreak lows near 40°

Tomorrow: Nicer, not as warm but pleasant with highs in the 60s

Monday: Pleasant with afternoon clouds and highs well into the 60s

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Discussion:

Somewhat short blog today since I”m still on vacation…no blog tomorrow.

The big weather story from last night was a long tracked supercell that produced some huge hail through OK and MO and another supercell that produced big hail with a shorter track

The southern track supercell started cranking out hail around 1PM or so and kept going through various changes until 7PM or so NW of the bootheel.

The northern supercell tracked from Morgan Co, MO to NW of St Louis in the course of 2 hours or so. That cell produced some 3-4″ sized hailstones at times…the worst appearing in the Jefferson City, MO area.

The southern storm also produced some near softball sized hailstones…

Hail that large in MO is’t typical as we know…

Today the severe weather threat shifts towards IL…and it could be a nasty day there.


Tornado outlook (probabilities)

From the SPC discussion this morning…strong wording.

“This will include supercells with tornadoes (some
long-tracked and significant at EF2+ damage levels), large and
sometimes very large hail, and occasionally severe non-tornadic
gusts. Given the fast storm motions, any tornadoes that do form may
persist for nearly as many miles as minutes of time — at least,
until supercells cross more than a short distance into what should
be a very sharp warm-frontal zone.”

So IL is under the gun this afternoon. Here is regional radar for that area.

and radar out of Springfield, IL

Interesting to see whether or not the morning convection messes up things this afternoon. The HRRR model says no to that…with a new explosion of storms in Eastern MO this afternoon flying towards the NNE.

There are some eye-popping instability numbers for central and southern IL…and some eye-popping tornado parameter numbers for other parts of the state…so again it’s very much something to watch. Plus IF something forms it will be moving around 60 MPH…very fast by tornado standards.

This is all coming because of this…a powerful storm at the surface…and from a satellite perspective.

KC is now in the dry slot of the storm…we’re clearing out and the winds have increased…

The 10AM surface map has a dry-line with a cold front catching up to it quickly

We should see a drop in the dew points over the next few hours…dew points this morning are in the 60s…but will drop to near 40° this afternoon…

Winds are also increasing and will stay gusty through the wee hours of the morning.

So this is quite the storm…not unusual though for March and April as colder and warmer air masses come together and battle it out.

Tomorrow the cooler air coming in will get moderated by sunshine…so it should be a nice day.

Next system is due very late Monday night into Tuesday.

Finally part two pf my podcast with Scott Watson, a hydrologist with the NWS in Pleasant Hill. This part delves into what we could expect this spring. Right now I’m increasingly encouraged by the trends…and the risk of something like last year is decreasing…

The feature photo comes from Jamie Taylor of the storms down towards Spring Hill the other night.

Joe

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