Joe’s Weather World: Powerful storm brings another temperature plunge (SAT-4/11)

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The weekend is upon us and while it’s going to be a windy weekend…we will be mild through mid-afternoon on Sunday before a strong cold front comes through the region sending temperatures down some 30° over the course of 2-4 hours. Rain is likely with that transition but overall much of the weekend through lunch tomorrow will be dry.

The next week will be a chilly one…with the potential of record lows in the region. The days will be cool…some 20° below average for a few of the days…but overall the forecast will be dry after Sunday night for several days…into Thursday at least.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and mild with highs approaching 70° with a chance of a few storms developing this evening and quickly moving through. Windy as well with gusts to 30 MPH possible.

Tonight: Evening storms possible then variable clouds and mild with lows well into the 50s

Tomorrow: Changeable with cloudy skies. Temperatures warm up well into the 60s then drop sometime after 2PM or so. 30s by mid evening. Rain likely at times, especially in the afternoon…storms are possible as well.

Monday: Mostly sunny and windy. Cool for mid April with highs in the mid 40s after morning lows in the 25-30° range.

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Discussion:

Spring and winter are going at it for the next 36 hours. Eventually for us colder air will win the fight and we’ll see the chilly air flow into the area tomorrow afternoon.

As I start this blog there are showers and storms in MO moving into central MO late this morning. These were expected.

I didn’t think KC would be in on this…and at least so far we’re not.

The satellite loop today shows a nice area of sunshine that’s going to try and build into the area today…

Temperatures today could really warm up with enough sunshine. Some data indicates mid 70s are possible before the afternoon is overwith.

The next issue is this evening a a cold front sags into central KS. That front will slow down tonight as it gets closer to KC. The issue is whether or not storms will form in NW MO and NE KS and try to sneak into parts of the Metro, especially north and west of I-35.

There will be instability building later today but the location of the front itself may be farther west…and if that’s the case it may be tough to get anything into the KC area…it may slide farther to the NW of the Metro. It’s worth a chance mention but I’m not overly thrilled about the set-up right now.

Here is a look at the short term HRRRR model…for timing purposes 21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM…3Z is 10PM and 6Z is 1AM and so on.

The HRRR model run this morning for 8PM tonight shows this set-up with the front a bit too far away.

There will be instability in the area though…so I can’t rule out something happening…especially if some weak wave comes up from the SW and tries to set some storms off this evening. Worth watching but not worth cancelling evening plans for.

As I mentioned the front will sort of wallow around tonight and tomorrow morning waiting on a storm system to organize and move towards the area. This is where the weather gets very changeable. For the morning and at least part of the afternoon we are in ahead of the front. Meaning a persistent south wind…perhaps a good deal of clouds…and mild conditions.

Here is the hi-res NAM showing the temperatures at 1PM tomorrow. I think these might be a little low for that time frame…I’d add on 3-5° locally…but there should be a good deal of clouds. You can see the colder air on the far left side of the graphic…that’s the cold front.

Then about 3 hours later things become much more apparent…and what a change moving into the area.

In reality there might be even be more of a temperature contrast as it moves through. The bottom line is a fast drop because IF you notice in the colder air the temperatures tank to the mid 30s and that contrast will be sharper I think. That’s an impressive mid April front.

As the front moves through and hits some of the moisture…there should be at least some rain…and potentially some storms. I guess it’s not out of the question there may be some stronger storms…especially towards the S/SE and E of KC after 3PM. It’s worth watching. There is a slight risk down there.

Beyond that the cold air is the story…mid 20s with teens for wind chills on Monday morning and a chilly afternoon with highs in the 40s. I don’t think we’ll get the coldest high temperature on record for the 13th but it will be one of the coldest highs for that particular day. The coldest record high for the date is 42°…you can see this will likely be a Top 5 or 10 coldest day iin about 130 years of record keeping.

Interestingly there are 3 years in a row of cold April 13ths…2007/2008/2009 in the top 10…weird.

Then the next issue is the potential for record lows…starting Tuesday morning. The issue that may keep us from getting a record however is clouds around 12-20,000 feet up. There are indications of moisture coming in from the west south west and we really need to have clear skies for us to tank especially as the nights get shorter…IF those clouds get here it will be tough to get to 25° with is record from 1928!

The we remain chilly for mid April through the week…with highs in the 40s to mid 50s and lows in the 20s to mid 30s…average for this time of the year is closer to 66° for highs and 44° for lows.

There are decent signs of milder air coming into the area again sometime after about a week or so…as the coldest air starts to be more diverted towards the the northern US and northeast US. Odds are we’ll be dealing with stronger storm chances before the end of the month again.

Ads mentioned this week the SE part of the country will be very vulnerable to big storms tomorrow including the potential of some long track tornadoes…not a slam dunk because we have to see how things set up tomorrow…but the chances are certainly there.

Including high probabilities of tornadoes…

It’s worth noting that there is a small path to where this isn’t as big of an outbreak as is possible and that would be if there is a bit more of a cap and the instability doesn’t build as much…but with that said there are some parameters that are really off the charts concerning down there…

The feature photo comes from Jackie Burchit‎

Joe

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