Joe’s Weather World: Rain chance #2 inbound (SUN-11/22)

Weather

Tomorrow is the Winter Forecast Day. Starting at 4AM…check in with the various newscasts for our thoughts then I’ll recap all of it at 5PM.

Well yesterday’s forecast for rain and amounts verified pretty well. Amounts weren’t to impressive but at this point we’ll take whatever we can get. For the most part amounts ranged from next to nothing in northern MO to about 1/10-1/3″ around the KC area. This is what I was expecting. That system is moving away this morning…and while we’ll have clouds for awhile…the sunshine should be out in force later today.

The next system comes in tomorrow afternoon and rain should develop quickly with a coolish day on tap. That rain continues off and on on Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday morning. From there we’re looking pretty good into Thanksgiving and beyond it appears.

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Forecast:

Today: Gradual clearing this afternoon with temperatures approaching 50°.

Tonight: Clear and crisp with a frosty start Monday and lows near 30°

Monday: Rapid increase in clouds in the morning with showers possible later in the afternoon then some evening rain. Highs in the mid 40s

Tuesday: Off and on rain and perhaps some thunder as well in the evening. Not as cool with highs in the lower 50s.

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Discussion:

As one system pulls away…

another lurks…it’s that mess off the Pacific Northwest.

There will be an appetizer system that comes into the Plains tomorrow…this will come through the Rockies and zip in the area with enough moisture to create at least some rain in the area. It may not be too heavy tomorrow PM. The NAM model is sort of interesting in that it tries to cool the atmosphere above us enough to create some sort of wintry mix somewhere in the area, perhaps more north of KC. Interesting. I don’t think it’s right though…it just seems overly cold to me but I’ll watch that tomorrow just in case. We’re sort of due for a sleet to rain event on the calendar but I’m not sure this system is a candidate for it. What falls may tend to favor areas from KC northwards into northern MO…not so confident about areas south of the Metro.

Then a system from the Pacific Northwest will become rather strong and come through the west and into the Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create rain and thunderstorms and enable more moisture to return northwards into Tuesday night..

Take a look at the maps from about 18,000 feet up or what we refer to as the 500 mb level. It’s a great way to see dips in the flow…ahead of those dips or troughs are were we look for rising air.

For timing purposes…12Z is 6AM…18Z is Noon…0Z is 6PM and 6Z is 12AM.

Note that bigger dip moving into the Plains on Tuesday. That is our next more significant weather maker. Ahead of that…a strong south wind will be developing later Monday night into Tuesday. Winds just above the surface will be cranking at over 50 MPH. This means Tuesday looks pretty windy to me. This strong south winds will be taping into moisture at the surface and aloft…so that the dew points will be popping into the 40s…perhaps higher towards evening. As this occurs a decently strong surface low will be moving through the Plains as well. This should move into eastern KS along the I-70 corridor Tuesday night. As it does we may see thunderstorms develop west of here and rapidly move towards the NNE.

I don’t think it’s a severe weather set-up for us but if a few other things happen I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if a storm or two had 50 MPH winds as they fly through the region later Tuesday evening.

This system though has some potential of being a prolific rain maker…especially for areas towards northern MO which seems to be missing out on many of these rains that we’ve seen. That area is in a moderate drought right now…likewise into NE KS.

All told over the next 72 hours…the NAM is pretty impressive up there.

The key to getting those better rain totals will be any convective rains later Tuesday. IF that doesn’t happen…then the rain amounts are being overestimated.

After this system though…again no major intrusion of cold air…just seasonable weather really heading into the weekend. There might be a bit more cold air heading into early December though.

OK that’s it for today…our feature photo is from Mary Jo Seever up in Atchison Co

I’ll get a blog post out tomorrow afternoon regarding our actual winter forecasts…sometime around lunch. It will have all the winter forecasts on it. Then on Tuesday I’ll have a ridiculously long blog about my reasoning why I’m doing what I’m doing.

Joe

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