Joe’s Weather World: Record breaking cold potential ahead and some more rain (WED-5/6)

Weather

Good morning…it’s crisp out there! Temperatures in some of the outlying areas are in the upper 30s this morning, especially towards northern MO. Locally we dropped into the lower 40s. That’s a solid 10° below average and if it can get this cold this morning…what happens when a cold air mass comes into the area Friday into the weekend?

There should be some rain as well as we make a transition tomorrow. The rain will be on the increase in the afternoon and night tomorrow. Then we get more wind on Friday and the coolness becomes the bigger issue heading into the weekend.

There are strong signals that we’ll come out of this cooler pattern next week with a pretty decent warm-up but with that warmth will come renewed severe weather risks to finish the back half of May.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the low>mid 60s. Not as windy as yesteday

Tonight: Fair skies and cool with lows in the mid 40s

Tomorrow: Clouds increase in the morning then cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the lower 60s before the rain arrives then dropping into the 50s with the rain sometime in the afternoon. It could be a chilly raw evening assuming we have rain in the area.

Friday: Windy and cool with highs around 60° and partly cloudy skies. The rain should be ending towards daybreak. Winds may gust to 35 MPH in the morning with 25+ MPH gusts in the aftenoon. Blustery!

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Discussion:

An upper level disturbance off the NW part of the US will be our next rain-maker in the KC region. Actually ahead of it some weak little ripples will come through the Plains tomorrow. That will start to moisten up the atmosphere and increase the clouds during the morning tomorrow. Eventually we’ll start to get some areas of rain to develop and that will lead to falling mid>late afternoon temperatures as that rain cools off the air.

Here is a look at the satellite loop…the “glitchyness” of the images will resolve itself as the day moves along.

You can see the wave off of Washington.

That will come into the northern Rockies and eventually into the Plains later tomorrow night and Friday morning. You can see the “U” shaped dip in the jet stream as we go up to about 18,000 feet. Track the disturbance through the northern Rockies and into the western Plains and then it zips through here 1st thing Friday morning.

So that is the rain situation…and the rain too will zip out of here in the early morning on Friday.

Then cooler air will slowly seep in as higher pressure builds through the middle of the country. The coldest of the air (relative to average) will be towards the Great Lakes region BUT we’re going to have the perfect set-up for strong overnight cooling on Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure moving overhead…light winds…and dry air.

Saturday AM temperature anomalies. Some areas towards the eastern OH Valley will be almost 30° below average

Interestingly the air will be warmer above us…which means that as soon as we start to get the sunshine on Saturday the dry air will warm up nicely.

Frost is almost a definite at this point. As I’ve talked about the record is 35° in 1980 and interestingly enough last year on the 10th we dipped to 36° I think to establish a record low…so IT CAN get cold and I think this air mass will be colder than what happened last year one day later.

Would I be shocked IF we dipped to 32°…nope. IF that were to happen it would mark the latest 32° temperature in KC weather history I believe. That would be pretty impressive and it’s possible this could happen.

The only thing that MAY prevent this is that the winds will be switching towards the SW overnight into the morning on Saturday but they will be very light…ad may not stop the drop fast enough. We’ll see but again as I’ve harped on for days now…gardener’s will want to do what they can to protect those delicate flower beds.

Another disturbance comes our way for Monday and that could be a chilly miserable rain by mid May standards. The EURO does show highs struggling in the 50s both Monday and Tuesday before the warmer air returns

Also worth noting…we may have frost again on Monday morning for parts of the area too!

As we head towards next Wednesday and Thursday the air will be undergoing a massive warm-up to near to above average levels…and with this will come more moisture and by next Thursday we may be watching for stronger storms again.

The back half of May does look to be more active for severe weather risks for the Plains and the southern Plains…so we’ll enjoy the lull while we have it.

The feature photo comes from Jessica Kratzberg out towards Greeley, KS in Anderson County. There were some interesting looking clouds on the 4th…and this one is another one. She was looking up towards Richmond where wind damage occurred to some outbuildings north of town.

Interesting.

Joe

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