Joe’s Weather World: Still searching for rain (THU 10/8)

Weather

I’m going to be taking several days off but I did want to stop by and bring you up to date on the weather that while changing isn’t changing. The one thing that we’re struggling with right now is moisture. It’s been pretty darn dry since September 10th. Only about 1/3″ of rain officially up at KCI…others have had more…but it’s really becoming a “thing” right now because unless something changes on Monday…we may be waiting till next weekend for another chance of rain…that’s about 10 days from now.

Temperatures are also a big story. Yesterday we hit 90°. That doesn’t happen all that often in KC. In records going back to the 1880s…only 1% of ALL the October days (over 4000 in the books…have seen 90°+ days…so it was indeed rather unusual.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with some clouds on the south side. Highs in the mid 80s

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the upper 50s

Tomorrow: Breezy and warm with highs in the mid 80s

The weekend: Mostly sunny and warm…mid 80s or so. Perhaps a notch or two higher on Sunday with more wind on Sunday as well in the afternoon.

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Discussion:

So darn dry.

The latest drought monitor came out this morning…not a lot of change from last week really. A slight expansion of the “abnormally dry” area into parts of the Metro. Notice in the week to week change…only about a 1/2% increase in territory.

On the KS side…not a big change either…

With no rain expected through at least Sunday (maybe longer) this will turn into the 5th driest 9/11-10/8 time frame.

I’ve talked often about prolonged dry spells in the fall season…and that’s sort of what we’re seeing right now.

The forecast into the end of next week isn’t too encouraging…

From a temperature standpoint…yesterday was hot…the next 4 days will be rather warm…but we should see a return to seasonable weather starting Monday as a cold front sweeps through. It’s a Pacific air mass front though…so the air behind it isn’t overly cold…although the nights will drop into the 40s.

The front will be coming through early on Monday…bad timing despite dew points increasing somewhat ahead of the front. The data isn’t so great for rain though. Few models give us much of anything…many give us essentially nothing. I still can’t rule out “something” but it probably would amount to under 1/10″ or so from the Metro eastwards. Not a great look for those wanting rain.

The GFS suggests that IF we don’t get at least 1/10″ of rain next week…that we’re waiting till perhaps the last week of the month for something.

Meanwhile the main weather story on a bigger scale is Hurricane Delta that will be moving into LA later tomorrow into early Saturday.

It’s been a pretty steady forecast for Delta. That area west of New Orleans towards Lake Charles has been sort of the forecast landfall all along it seems. Remember the worst effects from hurricanes are along the immediate path of the eye of the storm and eastwards.

IF you look carefully at the map above…that landfall area may look familiar. It’s because it’s VERY close to where Hurricane Laura hit about 6 weeks ago.

The track of Laura is the white dashed line…while Delta is the black line…that’s pretty crazy. Delta won’t be as strong as Laura was at landfall…Laura was a category 4 hurricane…Delta might be a category 2-3 storm, hopefully a little weakening as shear and cooler waters off the coast knock it down a peg or two as it comes ashore. The storm surge though will be significant.

IF you look carefully there is some 9 foot surges expected south of New Iberia.

Remember for a hurricane to be considered a “major” it has to be at least a category 3 hurricane with winds of 111 MPH or higher.

Sobering because of these types of pictures that were taken just YESTERDAY. Look at all the blue tarps…now envision several hours of at least 60 MPH winds with driving rains…how long will those tarps last?

Delta is starting to strength again…recon is starting to find 100+ MPH winds at flight level

When Delta makes landfall it will be the 10th named storm to hit the US…that would be a record for the tropical season.

That’s it for today…the feature photo is from People Of Cowtown via twitter.

See you next week.

Joe

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