Joe’s Weather World: Storms…some rain…and questions about both (MON-8/10)

Weather

There should be storms today…and there will be…but there are some questions about how things play out and just how bad the storms will be today. There are things that at early look don’t look right about how we’re setting up the atmosphere today.

A cold front to the north of the region will be working into the area later today. A weak disturbance is coming up from the southwest with clouds that may play a factor in how unstable we get this afternoon…and also the potential for earlier storms that could mess up the atmosphere to some degree in parts of the area.

Then there is the issue about how ALL of this sets up things for the next few days…how far south the front really gets, and whether or not we have additional storms tomorrow or Wednesday.

Regardless no extreme heat is foreseen at this point which is a good thing heading into the middle of the month.

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Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds and seasonable with highs well into the 80s. Scattered storms will be possible heading into the afternoon. The coverage though is a bit questionable right now…and how strong the storms actually will be is rather iffy too for the Metro at least.

Tonight: The front will be draped nearby…so at least some scattered storms are possible I think. Coverage again may not be that great. Lows near 70. Some data suggests the higher storm chances may be more towards the south of I-70.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warm with highs in the mid 80s. There may be some scattered storms in part of the area through 10AM though

Wednesday: Variable clouds…there may be some storms/rain nearby but that is iffy depending on how another disturbance forms and tries to come our way. Highs in the mid 80s

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Discussion:

Today’s forecast should be this messy. A front…lots of decent summer heat…high dew points…and a disturbance coming eastbound from KS…this should all result in bigger storms…and potentially severe storms in spots…and it may work out like that.

Then again it may not…at least for the KC Metro area.

The cloud cover that’s coming in from the west is interesting to some extent. There is a disturbance out towards central KS that is coming towards the area. So we get some earlier storms (towards or after lunch) that could help to realign the atmosphere for a time. Then when the disturbance passes by…there could be some sinking air in it’s wake. We call that subsidence. That’s not what you want for thunderstorms locally.

The front itself to the north of here has a good push right now but is expected to slow down to some degree today and then only slowly push through the region overnight into tomorrow morning.

IF the front slows down enough…and is lingering in the area to start the day tomorrow there may well be some morning storms/rain in the region for awhile…at least somewhere out there. There is also an issue with how the winds in the bottom half of the atmosphere are setting up for this. They’re not very good…they’re not very strong…and that means the storms may not get as organized as what would be the case a couple of months ago when the winds in the lower 10,000 feet of the atmosphere had more heft to them. Short term data shows the winds below 10,000 feet only around 5-15 MPH or so…not exciting to me

The one thing working for us at this point will be the instability that will be out there. There will be lots of it today. So that’s the reason why you can’t let your guard totally down.

In reality the front that isn’t that far away this morning in the big scheme of things may not move through until tomorrow morning…at least though the Metro. So that means there could be some storms 1st thing in the morning until it moves through although the instabilty then may not be that great.

We’ll work on that tonight.

Tonight is also the time frame when we get the potential of some heavier rains…especially on the MO side of things…perhaps near the area which saw the heavier totals last week. So some flooding is possible overnight into early Tuesday morning…which may be more towards the east or northeast of the Metro.

Here is the short term HRRR mode…

This should update as the day moves along. For timing purposes… 18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM and 3Z is 10PM.

This is way harder today than it needs to be really for what is in place.

Regardless of the severe weather threats…just remember that lightning will be an issue with any storm. Sometimes we underestimate the power of these lightning bolts…then there’s this.

So let’s use this shot from Lexie Murphy in Olathe of the storms yesterday as the feature shot of the day.

We’ll see how much of that we end up with by the end of the day/night.

Joe

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