Joe’s Weather World: Summer flips and fall flips (WED-9/23)

Weather

Happy Wednesday to you…it’s actually going to be a somewhat brighter day for parts of the area compared to what I thought yesterday. The lower clouds are more towards the west and north of the Metro…that should allow a decent amount of sunshine to come through. Overall seasonable temperatures are expected.

The pattern through the weekend and into Monday favors much warmer than average temperatures building. Tomorrow is transition day…then it gets hot and wind Friday into Saturday…a bit of a set-back on Sunday…then hotter weather ahead of several cold fronts that will bring MUCH cooler weather into the region next week into the weekend it appears.

And yet still no decent rain…

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and seasonable with highs in the mid>upper 70s

Tonight: Fair and pleasant lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and milder with highs in the lower 80s

Friday: Sunny, windy and hot…highs 85-90

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Discussion:

It’s actually pretty tough to write a weather blog without rain in the forecast. Today’s model data shows maybe something (more than a 1/10″) coming later during the week of the 5th but aside from that the main story will be temperature flips.

One thing that has been missing lately is wind…and we should start seeing the winds increase on Friday and Saturday. Those winds will be important to stirring up the air because with ample sunshine and wind…we can still really warm-up during this time of the year. Models will often underperform in these scenarios.

That’s why I’m bullish on the potential of near 90° heat on Friday and Saturday, assuming the winds help the cause…if not a few degrees less hot.

There will be a cold front coming into the area later Saturday night as well…that front appears to come through dry…although I won’t be shocked if maybe there are a few showers and storms on the MO side even if the models don’t really show anything yet.

We’ll back off a bit on Sunday before popping again on Monday ahead of a stronger front. That next front early next week appears as if it will be the 1st of several waves and re-enforcing shots of cooler air that will continue into next weekend. So the overall picture will be cooler again next week.

The other thing is despite the fact that we’re getting pretty significant shots of cooler weather coming…while I can’t totally rule out another chance of some rain sometime later Monday as the 1st front comes through…it doesn’t appear like it will amount to all that much .After the 1st front on Monday in a series comes through…the next couple of fronts that follow won’t have much moisture to work with…so the rain chances don’t look too good.

Above is the 8-14 day forecast…doesn’t look too encouraging.

We’ve only had 3 other years without rain from September 15th through the end of September…we’re on pace to do it a 4th time. Today will be the 12th day without measurable rain…the longest dry stretch of the year is 16.

Here are some longer runs of dry weather…assuming we get beyond 16…

We had a couple of 19 day runs in 2017…

So yeah it’s dry…bad timing for overseeders and new sod.

Meanwhile down south…all sorts of flooding connected to Beta…

I did see some near 12″ totals in the Houston region over the past 2+ days.

For the 1st time in a few weeks though…the tropics are settling down. Teddy has transitioned away from a tropical system…it’s still a massive storm though in eastern Canada…but for now…and probably for a bit of time…there aren’t any systems to watch in the tropics.

OK that’s it for today…no blog tomorrow…

The feature photo is from Vicki Anderson Dolt up in Lawson, MO

Joe

Tracking Coronavirus

More Tracking Coronavirus

Weather News

Popular

Latest

More News