Joe’s Weather World: Swimming In Humidity (TUE-6/30)

Weather

We really needed that rain last week…and for many it was the best rain for the month…the result though of that rain is more evaporation. The moisture that recharged the soils in the area is now evaporating into the lower part of the atmosphere and that is sending the dew points to some rather lofty levels. It’s NOT uncommon to have dew points in the mid 70s (or higher) around these parts with such green terrain around here…it tends to happens more than a few times a year as a matter of fact.

Well we’re in it now and aside from perhaps some scattered storms in the region over the next 5 days…we’re sort of left to our own devices when it comes to the combination of summer heat and humidity. Put them together and the heat index will be a “thing” into the holiday weekend it appears.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and breezy with winds gusting to 30 MPH. Hot and humid. Highs near 90° with heat index values approaching 100°.

Tonight: Fair skies with the potential of some scattered storms overnight into early Wednesday. Lows in the mid 70s

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and hot with highs around 91°

Thursday: No big change with highs in the lower 90s

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Discussion:

Nice to be back at work after a few days off. Summer is vacation season around here and with the virus messing up lots of time off during the 1st half of the year…we’re sort of in catch-up mode now. So I’ll be off another time or two this coming summer.

In my absence we had the arrival of the Saharan dust in the Metro…heavy rains moved through…and the dew points have started to pop again.

So far this year we’ve seen more than a few days with dew points in the 70+° range…not unusual really.

Now we’re starting to see dew points in the 75° range. Again not shocking. Heck last year we had dew points 75° or higher around 20 different days. Not too surprising considering how incredibly wet it was last year.

To get dew pints though to 80° or higher…that takes some effort. I think the highest I remember was 82° dew points about 5-10 years ago. The last time we hit 80° dew points was back in 2017 on July 22nd. It doesn’t happen often but IF it happens…usually it’s between 5-9PM or so.

I thought this was interesting…as you know we consider summer to be 3 months from June 1st through the end of August. Using that criteria…there has been a subtle increase in the dew points in KC since KCI opened back in the early 70s.

Our average dew point in that time frame is around 66°…note 2012…the year of the drought sticking out like a sore thumb along with 1988 too. Hot temperatures and dry conditions “bake out” the soils and reduce the dew points after a certain amount of time.

All the graphics above are via IA State.

Now that we have that covered…the seasonably hot and humid weather is likely to persist for quite some time…there is some potential for temperatures to get even hotter but 1) we’ll need to bake out the soil more…and 2) clouds and various disturbances running through the Plains may affect the temperatures on a day to day basis.

The trick though is the rain chances…and that is a situation that while there may be day to day chances…really we’ll just have to watch it. Would I be surprised between now and Friday of some locally heavy downpours…not at all. Where these occur though is anyone’s guess and there is no overwhelming reliable signal in the model data that leads one to increase rain chances to a high degree at this point.

We’ll watch later tonight into tomorrow morning for a chance…perhaps something on Friday as well. It will be hot…today there is a heat advisory in effect towards the west of KC…not too far away, where temperatures will get a bit hotter and dew points will be elevated. So that will send the heat index at or near 105° or higher.


The counties highlighted in orange represent the heat advisory areas.

It’s a weather pattern that may well persist more often than not into July and the long range forecast for the next month (July) is on the hotter side of things.

So there’s that to potentially look forward too.

My feature photo of the day is from Kellie Lewis Doyle‎ down towards the Lake of the Ozarks.

Joe

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