Joe’s Weather World: That Spring feeling! (WED-3/3)

Weather

Happy Wednesday! Mother Nature is going to give us a good shot of weather for the next couple of days with soaring temperatures and lighter winds. In other words, ideal weather for early March in the region. Great to be outside for a late lunch or whatever.

There are changes showing up for next week in about a week or so. A stronger Plains storm, typical for March, is likely and may bring with it our first real chance of thunderstorms around these parts. Depending on the playout and the timing, there may be an opportunity for severe weather as well in about a week or so.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and mild. Delightful with lighter winds compared to yesterday and highs near 70°.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant lows in the 30s.

Tomorrow: Ditto but some increasing clouds later in the day. Near 70°.

Friday: Mostly cloudy AM with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs well into the 50s.

The weekend: Looks good with windier weather on Sunday.

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Discussion:

March has certainly started off on a nice note around these parts. You can see though down the road a return to a more active pattern. How active… we’ll see, but at least here should be a storm on the board for the middle of next week.

Obviously being a week away, details are a bit rough shall we say, but there will be continued warm weather in the region and at some point next week, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the form of higher dew points will be advected northwards. That will be the key to storms. Until then, temperatures will remain above average heading into the next week.

The data above is from the EURO model. It’s running a bit cool I think through the weekend.

The GFS data is more or less the same.

Our next storm to affect the Plains is actually off the coast of California this morning. The satellite pictures will clean themselves up as the day goes along.

That storm will come ashore and take an interesting and not too threatening path around and southwest of the KC area.

As we go up to about 18,000 feet or so, you can see this track up and into the Rockies, snow for them, then down towards the southeast. This will certainly bring us clouds later tomorrow into tomorrow night and Friday but moisture in the form of rain is fleeting. I can’t rule out some sprinkles or perhaps a few showers into the Metro but the better rain chances are south of the Metro.

This system should bring some snow to the higher elevations of the Rockies as well. That is always helpful for an area that is still in drought mode out there.

So there is some good March snow coming out there. March can be a very snowy month in the Colorado area as storms strengthen and interact with contrasting air masses.

For the KC area, things will continue to sort of dry out. The winds that will be increasing on Sunday into Monday of next week will enhance the drying too. So we’re going to need some moisture and there is a system way out towards eastern Asia/Russia that would be a candidate to help that cause as it crosses through the Aleutians and comes into the northern Pacific Ocean over the weekend. It will likely come ashore in California later next Tuesday and then come eastbound.

From there though we’ll see. Ahead of it, warm moist air will be drawn northwards. Dew points should come up into the 50s, perhaps 60s as well. The storm though as it moves through the western US will be going through various transitions. So we’ll see how much it really affects us as we get closer to Sunday into Monday, but it will guarantee more mild air overall in the region for another week or so.

So more on that potential and the potential for stronger storms next week. There should be some favorable wind fields for fast moving storms. Timing though will be crucial.

So yesterday was sort of messy for the Tornado Drill day. Alerts that were sent out that shouldn’t have been. Siren systems that didn’t trigger when they should have. It’s good that we do these things so that we figure them out now instead of later.

For those that are new to the region, you may not be familiar with some of the vernacular that we use during risks of severe weather and potential tornadoes.

If you’re unfamiliar with where to go in your home…

Check out this whole thread

Today the focus is on lightning:

In data for 2019, in Missouri there were close to 4.6 MILLION lightning strikes per Earth Networks.

In Kansas, there were over 8.2 MILLION!

A LOT of lightning. Obviously, Texas with over 16 million led the country. We even beat Florida I think that year (on the Kansas side).

Alex wrote a whole article on this for you.

Our feature photo comes from Vicki Anderson Dolt up in Lawson, Mo.

Joe

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