Joe’s Weather World: The likely end to the dry spell (FRI-9/25)

Weather

It’s Friday…and for two days it’s going to feel like summer again. Today and tomorrow will both be warm…breezy…and a bit more humid. Then we have a cold front coming and that will shove the heat south…and allow, for the 1st time in a couple of weeks…rain to fall for most of the area.

This started showing up in the data on Wednesday…and I started hinting that I was watching Sunday’s forecast because of a possibility of something happening…then yesterday I went all in. I think that will end up being the right call because the rain chances will be increasing during the afternoon and should max out in the evening. It does look like a decent soaking rain as well, something that we could use for sure.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny, breezy and warm with highs in the mid 80s

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: Sunny and hot with winds gusting to 20-30 MPH. Highs in the 90° range

Sunday: Dry initially with breezy and mild temperatures…highs in the 70s…then rain developing in the afternoon and continuing into the evening. 1/4″>1 1/4″ possible. Temperatures dropping in the rain.

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Discussion:

Today will be 14 days without measurable rain up at KCI…the official station for KC. Tomorrow will be the 15th day.

The longest streak this year is 16 days back in August but it’s more and more likely that we won’t get that 16th day because of a cold front that will create rain in the region to finish the weekend.

We’ll have another opportunity to start a streak come Monday or Tuesday though and that’s why this rain is so important. It’s getting dry out there. Not unusual for the late summer and early fall but with the wind these next couple of days and the hotter afternoons…things have really dried out.

The overall pattern though is a dry one..so the rain we get may have to last us awhile. IF some only get about a 1/4″ or so…I don’t see any big chances down the road for awhile. IF some areas get missed..that won’t be good…because most, if not all of next week looks pretty dry overall…into next weekend as well.

The cold front that moves into the area should do so as the middle of the day Sunday moves along. Initially dry at passage, the air will become more saturated and while the heavier rain may take awhile to get going in the afternoon…some lighter rain/drizzle will be possible. As I mentioned we’ll need every drop we can get.

The winds will be increasing as well in the afternoon and night on Sunday and temperatures will be falling off…perhaps into the 50s in the rain cooled air…so a blustery finish to the weekend is likely, especially Sunday evening.

We’ll remain in the rain cooled air mass into Tuesday it appears…with drier weather. After that there may be a one day warm-up on Wednesday depending on the timing of the next plunge of chilly air. Downsloping winds could take us into the 70s Wednesday IF we set-up correctly and IF the next shot of cool air waits till later Wednesday or early Thursday.

That next shot of cool air is the one that could create some patchy frost out there on Friday morning.

So a lot is going to happen over the next week or so…some summer weather and some nice fall weather too!

This change in the weather combined with the shorter daylight will start getting the leaves going. We’re still about a month away from peak colors but I’m seeing some changes now, especially in some of the maple trees which almost always put on a good color show.

Other colors (and not good ones) can be seen below…this shows the burn scars from the fores out west…

7 million acres and counting have burned this year. The pattern though is troubling for next week…because we we cool off…dry hot weather develops in the western US under a massive ridge. This means hotter weather out there a cooler weather from the Plains eastwards

Hotter and drier weather will be especially felt in CA…and the desert Southwest again. This is not a “fall is coming” forecast for the Phoenix area…every day around 100° and obviously no rain.

There is some good news though…there is rain for the next couple of days in the Pacific Northwest and their air quality has improved tremendously.

Also some good news…the tropics are settled for the time being.

OK that’s it for today…no blog tomorrow but I may get something together for you before noon on Sunday with the developing rain scenario.

Our feature photo comes from Shrewsbury Scott Pam taken last night.

Joe

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