Joe’s Weather World: The rain finally stops (sort of) (FRI-7/31)

Weather

In the end…this was one heck of a rainstorm for most of the region. Just last night…parts of Johnson Co on the MO side had over 8″…last night. Numerous roads are flooded SE of KC and the rain is still sort of going there this morning but will slowly fade today.

For the KC area…amounts varied from 2″ to almost 8″. Impressive for late July for a multi-day system. Temperatures have also been “not as hot” as typical to finish the month. Overall the month will finish just shy of 1° above average.

From a rain standpoint…we’ll finish the month with over 10″ up at KCI, which is the official station for KC. This will end up as the 5th wettest July in KC weather history.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and not overly warm. Dew points will remain seasonable though so a muggy feel with highs around 80°

Tonight: Some clearing with the potential of some fog as well and lows down into the mid 60s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and OK for the 1st day of August. Highs around 83°

Sunday: Some morning showers are possible. Highs around 80°

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Discussion:

So that was a rather interesting month…yesterday we went from #10 to #5 in terms of the wettest July’s in KC weather history. Add in another .05″ today and we end up with 10.02″ (assuming nothing else comes this afternoon).

Last night was just a brutal night for Johnson Co on the MO side…and south as well. A band of persistent heavy rain set up there and was spinning around a disturbance that was about stationary for several areas. There has been so much moisture in the atmosphere to tap into these last few days…and that it did. One of my colleagues down there had 8″ of rain outside Centerview, MO.

I was harping on that all evening on the newscasts last night…it was pretty bad and there are numerous flooded roads down there. Then there’s this as the wave drifted southwards…

That is amazing…

Back home…over the last week here are the totals from a swath of the Metro…

Here are more totals…over the 7 days…

Notice the 10-11+” totals in JOCO MO.

Quite the week…including the brief tornado in Smithville as well…which was rated as an EF0 with winds of around 65 MPH.

Now the focus is on the cooler weather coming into the area, especially for next week as a highly unusual and somewhat persistent cooler regime settles into the area. Temperatures on average are at their highest the 1st week or so of August. That will not be the case.

I’m hesitate to push the highs down too far…because of the August sunshine…but a day or two with highs in the 70s are possible along with morning lows in the 50s…especially in the outlying areas. I did check for the record low potential…not totally out of the question for a day or two next week either.

With all this rain…and the cooler regime over the next 10 days or so…it’s getting tougher and tougher to see how much above 95° we’ll get this summer…which would be remarkable. The highest we’ve been this year is 94° which has happened a couple of times.

The other issue and weather-maker is Isaias which is moving into the Bahamas. Yesterday as it was just off the coast of Hispaniola it strengthened suddenly to a hurricane. Now it appears to be undergoing some wind shear aloft which will disrupt the circulation somewhat today.

At this point it appears that it may just barely stay off the coast of FL…BBUT you can see how SC/NC are vulnerable based on the latest forecast.

3-5 day forecast errors though are rather large on average. The EURO, for what it’s worth…has this into southern and central FL…and it does have ensemble support as well before curling towards the northeast.

Take a look at all the various positions from the different members of the model.

The TPC has noted that there is tremendous “spread” in the model data…and that confidence in the eventual track later in the weekend and early next week is rather high. So we’ll see how this plays out.

Our feature photo comes from Peggy Hendershot out towards Shawnee Mission Park.

Have a great weekend.

Joe

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