Joe’s Weather World: There goes the heat…here comes the rain (SUN-9/27)

Weather

Our dry spell has reached 15 days…and there it will stop. Today it will rain at some point as a front comes into the area as the day moves along. The winds, as I type this blog have switched towards the north in north of I-70 and that’s the sign of the front. The cooler air is lagging a bit though…and once the rain gets going the temperatures will drop off into the 50s! Pretty good turn-around from the 90° air yesterday.

Yesterday was the 8th time we got to 90° on the 26th of September…so it only happens roughly once out of every 16 years or so…on that date at least. Winds we’re gusting all day to about 30 MPH as well…so it was a hot one…it appears that may have been the last 90° although we can still get pretty close ahead of fronts coming into the area.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with rain and eventually some thunderstorms moving through. Temperatures will be near 70° before lunch and then drop quickly as the rain increases…into the 50s with gusty winds developing as well from the north at 20-30 MPH

Tonight: Variable clouds and cooler with lows in the upper 40s

Tomorrow: Nicer and cool with highs well into the 60s…breezy as well with gusts over 20 MPH

Tuesday: Very pleasant with highs approaching 70°…still a bit breezy.

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Discussion:

From summer right back into fall…it will certainly be a marked change later today as the rain starts and the temperatures start falling. The cold front itself is slowly working southwards at 8AM.

It’s not exactly a strong front in the sense of a large gradient from one side to the other this morning. Notice the air in SE NE (behind the front) is still in the 60s…but as the front comes into the juicier air rain and storms will develop behind the front to a large extent…some ahead of the front as well. This rain will cool down the air significantly and send temperatures down firming up the temperature contrast later today from one side of the front to the other side.

The cooler will will linger overnight and tomorrow temperatures will be several degrees below average with breezy>windy conditions developing as the day moves along. Gusts over 25 MPH are possible tomorrow.

The rain that we get today is needed no doubt and has been in the forecast for several days. After today there isn’t a lot showing up…perhaps something next weekend. So we need this rain to be fruitful for the area to recharge the soils a bit. Amounts on average look to be in the 1/4″ to 1″ range with some upside should you get some convection. For some areas if you miss out on the mid-day convection…it may be awhile before you get the rain to fall.

This mornings HRRR model run shows thunderstorms developing south of I-70 towards the Noon hour…and then the more general rain coming sometime after 3PM today…so it’s going to be a dicey afternoon it appears.

The next issue for the week will be the potential of at least some patchy front, perhaps more likely towards northern MO but something even gardeners need to pay attention too closer to home for next Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures close to 40° on the northside means parts of the area are in the 30s…and with light winds and expected clear skies…frost would be possible…so let’s circle those dates…Friday and Saturday on the calendar just in case you need to protect those fall mums.

After the rain today the next rain chance might be sometime later next Saturday or early next Sunday.

The month of October can be a real wildcard for rain around here (heck even snow…the last two years…remember?). You can get a lot of moisture like in 2018 (2nd highest total) or very little moisture (2011 was the 5th driest). This is just since 2000.

The October forecast is this from the CPC…

A decent shot of below average amounts of rain.

We average 3.16″ or so.

Our feature photo comes from Lisa Lewis down towards the Lake of the Ozarks.

Have a great rest of the weekend…

Joe

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