Joe’s Weather World: Tricky Tuesday snow risk (MON-2/24)

Weather

After a fabulous weekend around the KC region…50s on Saturday and 60s for many on Sunday…we’re paying the price today. Rainy and chilly weather for our Monday. I’m not concerned about the snow risk today…there just isn’t any cold air aloft that would support snow in the area today…and even if an isolated flake or two would develop somehow…it won’t amount to anything in the KC area.

Tomorrow could be different but even that risk isn’t set in stone locally because surface temperatures are going to me barely cold enough…and maybe not even cold enough to support much, if any, of an accumulation.

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Forecast:

Today: Rainy at times…and raw with temperatures slowly fading into the 30s

Tonight: Occasional light showers/drizzle with steady temperatures in the mid 30s

Tomorrow: Drizzle at times with lows of clouds and steady temperatures in the mid>upper 30s. There may be a few flakes of snow around or even some patches of snow showers, especially at night. The risk of accumulation in KC looks low right now…or perhaps something slushy.

Wednesday: Colder…maybe a few flurries out there…or a patch of light snow or two. Highs in the mid 30s

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Discussion:

In this weird winter of see-sawing temperatures…and yet some cold air intrusions…it’s been like pulling teeth to get any real snow for the area. Once again that may be the case for many parts of the area over the next couple of days.

Yesterday we popped into the upper 50s and lower 60s. That mild air surged through thanks to a delay in the timing of the onset of the rain by about 6 hours.

This meant that despite a favorable storm track…and a rather strong surface low…there isn’t any snow producing cold air around the area to try and covert the rain over to snow. This would’ve been a nice snowstorm in many other winters…but not this year.

Radar this morning…

Two main clusters of rain…with a noticeable break between clusters (at least as of this writing at 9AM). On the broader scale.


The 8AM surface map shows the core of the low pressure in OK/KS…moving eastwards.

Note the air across the I-80 corridor…near 32° (at 8AM). IF that air was here it would be a different story today…but it’s not and it won’t be.

You can follow the storm’s movement by looking at the isobar analysis today. Isobars are lines of equal pressure…

At the surface we probably won’t fall below 36° today…aloft it may get a bit closer to supporting snow…but odds are the snow potential may develop towards the IA border…maybe. Let’s go up to about 3,000 feet or so…and look for the dashed blue lines. That represents the temperature of the air at that level in °C…so 0°C is 32°.

That snow supporting air appears to be shoved towards from the east towards the west and isn’t being driven south right now. That may change later this afternoon as the storm passes into south-central MO and that air comes south. By then though it may be a few degrees warmer.

Again a swing and a miss for the KC region.

Then the next issue is tomorrow.

A mess of a disturbance, now in WY will drop into the Plains. The air will be marginally supportive of snow and again the disturbance isn’t taking a bad track per say for snow…I’m just not sure IF the atmosphere in the lower part of the atmosphere wll be cold enough to support snow.

The data today shows the potential for some sort of wintry mix possible tomorrow night into Wednesday early morning but not for all. There may be a more favorable accumulating snow risk towards the SW of KC…but again falling snow with mid 30s during the day is going to have a tough time accumulating even there it appears.

This will turn into a nice snowstorm across the upper Midwest towards Chicago and MI it appears.

After Wednesday…not much is expected around these parts…and another mild>warm weekend is ahead…with a possible repeat performance of what we just experienced coming down the pike.

My feature photo comes from William Johnson…

Joe

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