Joe’s Weather World: Warmer weather means moisture means rain chances (MON-5/11)

Weather

The weather is gray…the air is chilly and it feels like March out there doesn’t it. Granted this is all about perspective and if we were in the 50s in March that would be a good thing…but today and tomorrow…it’s possible we stay below 55° for highs and in May that’s not a great thing. We missed a record this morning because clouds came in before daybreak. We were certainly on the way though with 37° (the eventual low) at 4AM this morning.

Once the clouds arrived…temperatures creeped upwards. The issue is those same clouds combined with a east wind today will keep temperatures cool for May. As a matter of fact there is the potential for the coldest highs on record today which is 54°

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with a chance of a few light showers/sprinkles but the higher risk of that may be later today or tonight (if at all for the Metro). Highs in the mid 50s

Tonight: Cloudy with a chance of some very light rain. Amounts will be light, if at all. Lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Cloudy skies and cool with highs again in the 50s

Wednesday: Warmer with rain likely…maybe some storms. Highs well into the 60s and turning windy as well.

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Discussion:

Well let’s start with the satellite pictures…there is a lot of gray out there.

At the surface…there isn’t a lot of moisture below the cloud bases…so whatever tries to fall is going to evaporate as it falls to the ground.

So the end result is that while radar has activity…a lot of it is evaporating before it reaches the ground.

Data this morning indicates that most of the Metro may not see much of anything fro this whole thing through tonight. The rain amounts on the HRRR model show this…and I’m not sure about the NEwards extent of that rain.

Rain totals through 2AM

Tomorrow may not be much better with lows of clouds and that same cool breeze keeping temperatures well below average. We won’t set a record cool high…like potentially today (or tie) but then again it will be chilly by mid May standards.

As we head towards the middle of the week…a more southerly wind will start to move back into the area and that means a warm-up will commence.

Wednesday will be the transition day. At this point I’m not overly thrilled about the severe weather prospects locally at this point…it appears that may be more confined towards the west of the region and perhaps farther towards OK where the instability will be higher. Whatever forms down there though would be moving towards the NE…and may make it to us in a likely weakened form…

So at least there will be rain chances on Wednesday…we’ll see IF we can warm-up much above 65° though.

Beyond that though it will be getting warmer again…back into the 70s. There will be rain chances as well for a few days but there will be plenty of dry times mixed in. As far as a severe weather risk goes…murky at best and nothing really organized at this point. This may change but right now there aren’t any strong disturbances that seem to be targetting us showing up in the data. There will also be a cap around as well. So yes to at least some rain chances and at this point no to anything very concerning into the end of the week.

Again this could easily change with a well-placed wave coming into the Plains for the KC area.

At least it’s going to warm-up though…you can see that while we sort of bumble along for a few days…we do get back to near to above average towards the weekend.

So we have that going for us I guess.

The feature photo comes from Jennifer Suther

Joe

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