Joe’s Weather World: Watching for storms through Wednesday (MON-5/6)

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Wanted to get something short and sweet out for today/tonight and the next few days. The risks last blogged about yesterday will continue through the next few days…flooding is my main concern…along with the potential of overnight storms tonight and more storms Wednesday. A wavering front through the region will be an issue in all this and what happens one day may dictate again what happens the next day. The short range models will have issues with all this over the next couple of days. They’ve not been so great today…and Wednesday may be a changeable day as well.

  • Forecast:

Tonight: Storms at times…locally heavy rain. Scattered storms this evening, especially north of KC then a better chance overnight into the AM hours. Lows tonight near 60°

Tomorrow: Tricky forecast. Depending on what happens tonight…there may be a front around the region somewhere. That will need to be watched for new storm development. Highs could pop into the 60s or even 70s again IF there is some sunshine and IF the outflow doesn’t push southwards to far.

Wednesday: This could be the day that there is more widespread severe storms…also locally heavy rains are possible. Highs in the 70s.

  • Discussion:

So this isn’t going to be the easiest forecast from day to day. We know that there will be rain some 1-4″ possible…maybe more in some areas. That seems to be a given but the severe weather risks are going to crop up from time to time…one opportunity will be tonight.

Watching radar this afternoon and the satellite pictures…there are storms in northern KS and they’re moving towards the ENE it appears.

There have been winds gusting to 60 MPH in Concordia during the afternoon with these storms…that will need to be watched as that line may hold together as it moves towards eastern KS. There is instability out there, especially in eastern KS…so that Concordia line of storms could get here towards 8-9PM or so…earlier on the KS side.

Then tomorrow there will be a front somewhere…and that’s the rub. After overnight storms work over the atmosphere…what sort of shape will things be in tomorrow? Will be be cooler and in the 50s all day…60s…70s? So many questions and really it all involves what happens tonight with the storms.

At 4PM temperatures are in the 50s in NE…70s in MO and IA too…

What air mass is on us tomorrow?

Then on Wednesday the timing of a strong wave coming out of the western US will be the key in not only additional rain chances but also more storm chances. Wednesday is the day to perhaps watch out more for a traditional severe weather set-up but it’s not as clear cut because of questions regarding how AM storms may or may not mess up the atmosphere

Finally by Wednesday night everything blows through and we have cooler(!) weather for Thursday and Friday AM…some 30s are not out of the question Friday AM…

A/Cs to furnace time again

Regardless…lots of rain into Wednesday it appears.

So lots going on…I’m hoping for a more in depth blog tomorrow…


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