Joe’s Weather World: We have more rain and cold fronts coming (SUN-8/30)

Weather

Well as I look at the data this morning for this quick blog…there are some decent signs of more rain ahead…and also up rather strong cold fronts coming that will start adding a touch of fall to the air in the region over the coming couple of weeks. We’ll sort of be all over the place for temperatures during the 1st half of September but you can see how the atmosphere is starting to realign with cooler weather gradually spreading farther southwards in time.

This happens when the air up in Canada and the Arctic regions get colder with the longer nights happening up there and the air masses getting chillier. This is the beginning of the descent into winter weather that will continue for the next few months.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly to mostly sunny and pleasant with highs near 80°

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy skies with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: Rain chances will be around especially into the early afternoon. Highs may struggle a bit tomorrow with the rain in the area. Let’s shoot for 75-80° or so.

Tuesday: Another chance of rain, especially during the 1st part of the day with highs in the 70s

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Discussion:

Well we needed that rain yesterday…almost 3/4″ worth up at KCI..that brings our monthly total to over 1 1/3rd” and while that is dry for August…and we need some more…it was a good soaking rain. Many areas didn’t get that much though…and northern MO didn’t have much of anything so certainly more rain is welcome and we’ll have that chance into Wednesday morning it appears.

Temperatures which have been so hot last week have not also pulled back…and instead of 90-95° highs this coming week, we’re more in the 70s and 80s. There is one day that has potential to be above average…Thursday…but aside from that there isn’t a lot of summer left it appears in the forecast.

A cold front of sorts will be coming towards us tomorrow. Thunderstorms will be developing tonight across Nebraska and working their way southwards through the night and into the area tomorrow morning. This should move out in the afternoon and temperatures will start to recover sort of like yesterday.

Then the front that comes through…will stall to the south of here and try to return northwards again on Tuesday. It will be aided by a developing low level jet stream that will run over the front and create additional rains sometime later Monday night into Tuesday, especially into the 1st part of Tuesday. So some locally heavy rains are possible to start the month of September.

The rain chances will wind down probably early Wednesday. Modal data shows that some areas could see 1-2″ of rain and depending on the thunderstorm coverage there is some upside over the next 72 hours.

After this week’s up and down temperatures…there is the potential of some significant cooling during the Labor Day week. Model data shows a pretty strong signal for cooler weather flowing southwards. This will be the result of a rather strong ridge developing out in the western US into Alaska and a strong downstream dip or trough developing in the central and eastern US. The GFS shows this look (temperature anomalies at 5,000 feet or so for day 10 or next Tuesday.

The EURO has this look…notice the similarities…EURO is even chillier.

It’s no wonder that the 8-14 day outlook for the 1st part of September shows so much cool weather in the Plains…with the highest probabilities of cooler weather centered over the MO River Valley.

We’ll see how this plays out but you get the drift.

The feature photo comes from Chip Houser…pretty shot!

Joe

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