Joe’s Weather World: We need more rain (SUN-6/21)

Weather

Good morning…short blog today but I wanted to touch base about the potential for more storms and rain overnight tonight into early Monday. We need the rain…I dumped about 1/3rd on an inch out of my gauge the other day and to say that was a drop in the bucket…would be appropriate.

There are some pretty decent cracks in the soil out there, not unusual for our clay soils here in the region but rain would be welcome and tonight’s risk is there…not a slam dunk though because of the movement of the future storms that may come together this evening.

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Forecast:

This afternoon: Mostly sunny and hotter. Highs around 90° with a decent breeze out there as well.

Tonight: Initially dry with increasing storm chances after 12AM or so…lows eventually into the 60s

Tomorrow: Depends on the early activity. Clearing skies in the morning…IF we get a decent complex of storms overnight we may be stabilized tomorrow…IF not there could be some new storms later in the afternoon. That is very tentative though. Highs in the 80s

Tuesday: Should be a nice day with lower humidity and cooler weather. Highs near 80°. NIce!

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Discussion:

We’ve had a pretty good weekend so far and today won’t be too much of an exception. Some blowoff from a fading complex (small) of storms in NE will filter out the sunshine this afternoon but overall a decent day with somewhat muggy conditions.

Let’s start with regional radar…

The atmosphere, as is typical for later June is sort of a mess right now…subtle features are going to play a big role in how storms form and move for the next 36 hours or so. Later today a disturbance coming out of the Rockies will play a role in firing storms in western KS…those will roll towards the ESE and perhaps SE overnight. How far SE they turn may affect our rain chances here…and for that matter the risk of severe weather too.

The storms, when they form out west should be pretty nasty…with winds and hail the main threats. The SPC has placed most of eastern NE, KS and OK into an enhanced risk of severe weather.

The initial risks as the storms come together are wind and hail…

Higher hail risks

Then as the line comes together…winds will take over mostly.

You can see the higher risks are mostly towards the SW of the KC Metro.

The HRRR model shows the eventual development…

Nothing though with this is a slam dunk. The storms that form out there may very well pass us to the southwest…whatever forms in Nebraska may pass to the north…and we’re left with little to nothing locally. I won’t surprise me.

Tomorrow then becomes a bit more of an issue IF nothing happens tonight…because it would be possible then to get a cold front coming into more instability. That could generate storms in the PM…perhaps some stronger ones somewhere in the region…but again a lot depends on what happens overnight and how much of the atmosphere gets messed up by the various complexes and disturbances that will be out there messing things up in the atmospheric wonderland.

That is IF we get unstable enough…IF there are lingering showers/rain in the area tomorrow morning…we won’t get unstable enough and that would squash out PM chances significantly. So really it’s a forecast that we just have to sort of deal with every 6 hours or so. What happens tonight affects tomorrow…what happens on Monday morning affects the afternoon.

Regardless we should have some nice weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday may be a Top 10 Weather Day for the summer!

Perhaps some rain chances come back to the area towards the end of the week.

That’s it…Garry will keep you updated tonight at 9/10.

Our feature photo comes from Lesa Wardrip up in Parkville.

Joe

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