Joe’s Weather World: Wet weekend storm slows a bit (FRI-2/21)

Weather

It’s Friday and temperatures are going to get better over the next couple of days after some chilly February weather. Yesterday we hit 33° for a high…at least the winds were light. Interesting to note that we’ve had only 9 days since the near year with highs 32° or below. Last year from the New Year through 2/20 we were up to 21. It’s been a very different winter snow-wise and temperature wise.

We’re running 1° above average this month…and we’ll improve on that through Sunday then see what happens next week as most days to finish the month look colder than average.

The next storm is still coming at some point on Sunday but there may be a few hours of delay in the onset of the rain…that may allow Sunday to warm up into the 50s before the rain comes in especially on the northside.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and seasonable with highs well into the 40s. A bit breezy in the afternoon

Tonight: Clear and not as cold as this morning with lows steady in the 30° range

Saturday: Sunny and breezy with highs in the mid>upper 50s

Sunday: Cloudy with rain developing at some point in the afternoon..IF it holds off till after 3PM we may pop to 50-55° before the rain comes and drops us into the 40s

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Discussion:

So it snowed like crazy last night in NC…

Lots of 2-4″ totals in there…

TRACK OF YESTERDAY’S SNOWSTORM

So far this whole season NYC has had 4.8″ of snow and Philly with a stunning 3/10″ of snow…for the whole winter! Baltimore has had 1.8″ of snow and Washington D.C with only 6/10″ of snow…for the whole winter. Those are really low totals…but it only takes one big storm…and March can be a fickle month

Meanwhile around these parts..check out the stat that I started the blog with…the number of days with highs 32° or less. Let me expand how I started to encompass from November onwards through yesterday’s date…

HIGHS 32° OR LESS SINCE NOVEMBER 1ST

2012 is still the low point since 1990.

The good news is that we will be in the 50s over the weekend.

The core of the cold air is moving away from the area today…as high pressure moves off and away from the KC region. This has allowed a more southerly component of wind to kick in…and this will start the moderating trend that will take us through the weekend.

The map above show the isobars. These are lines of equal pressure and you can see the big 1040 and weakening surface high south of the area. 1040 mbs equals roughly 30.70″ on a barometer…that is rather high. Not crazy high…but pretty darn high. As we get on the backside of that area of high pressure…a more southerly flow will bring milder up northwards…and in time moisture

So 50s for sure tomorrow…well into the 50s although with the breeze it may feel cooler. Then a run into the 50s are doable on Sunday too because what moisture comes north may struggle a bit until it comes towards us. So we may be pretty dry (perhaps some scattered showers) through the mid afternoon before the rain comes later in the day and Sunday night. We’re starting the day Sunday milder…probably 35-40°…so it won’t take much to pop us into the 50s.

Once the rain starts we’ll drop into the mid 40s or so. The real question is the timing of the rain. IF it arrives later in the morning…we won’t hit 50…if it’s delayed we can get there. There is conflicting data on this potential. What comes our way in the late morning isn’t very heavy but would generate a pool of rain-cooled air south of KC…that pool of cool air will come up from the south…so it’s a race between how quick we can warm up to how fast the rain cooled air comes northbound.

The issue then is Monday. Rain will be ongoing Sunday night…no issues with cold air at that point but it will be colder across Nebraska…mid 30s up there.

As the storm spins towards the south of KC…again it’s really taking a track that in another winter…it would be a 3-7″ snow storms locally…that colder air in SD and eventually by Sunday night into Nebraska will start getting drawn into the storm.

This may help and try to convert the rain over to some wet snow flakes on the tail end of the storm from KC northwards towards northern MO. I’m still not overly convinced about this but can see a path of some wet snowflakes mixing in locally. Our air temperatures will be 35-38° which is REAL marginal for snow flakes…not impossible but IF the storm isn’t as strong or doesn’t chill the atmosphere down enough on Monday…this will be even tougher to pull off.

Worth a mention at this point. Accumulations look tough to come by for KC…maybe something slushy towards the IA border area.

It will be a wet storm…rain amounts may be in the 1″+ range, especially from KC southwards.

Next up is what happens after that. It’s going to be a colder week next week…below average almost all week long to finish February. So the cold air will be around for sure unlike this system coming on Sunday.

The system that follows the Sunday/Monday system is the one to watch because it will have cold air to work with. It’s a needle in a haystack type storm BUT IF it takes the right track it could actually overproduce as it comes through the area and odds are it would be snow.

UP AT AROUND 18,000 FEET..THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT FOR TUE/WED IS RATHER STOUT

That disturbance will come southeastwards and strengthen…again if it could pull this off correctly…it could be strengthening right on top of eastern KS allowing the system to create a blossoming area of snow in the region on Tuesday.

The GFS has less than a tenth of an inch while the EURO is over 1/4″…

It’s doable BUT it’s really going to have to come together at the right location for this to happen. Again sort of a needle in the haystack type storm.

From there…chilly days into the end of the month.

The feature photo comes from Carla Maley Skiles‎

Joe

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