Joe’s Weather World: When heat waves break… (SUN-7/21)

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Happy Sunday…the grass is a lot happier today and I think the crops up in northern MO are VERY happy today…after the overnight storms/rain and for some very heavy rains moved through a good part of the area. The 4 day heat wave is over for the vast majority of the region and much nicer weather is coming starting tomorrow. Lower dew points…and cooler (especially by July standards) air is waiting to flow into the region.

All week on the air I mentioned that when heat waves break here…you get rain and sometimes you get a lot of rain. I was frustrated and happy at the same time with the overnight storms…frustrated because I thought on Friday the heat would linger for today to a large extent and the rain would come later this afternoon and tonight…but yet happy that the rain actually came and hit the areas that needed the most rain after some very dry times.

  • Forecast:

Today:  Variable clouds but not as hot in the Metro…highs in the 80s…still a bit muggy.

Tonight: Storms are again possible this evening through 12AM…then cloudy skies and turning cooler with lows backing down into the 60s

Monday: Clearing out and pleasant with highs in the 80-85° range

Tuesday: Glorious for the latter part of July with low dew points and sunshine. Highs closer to 80°

  • Discussion:

Well this is one of the big stories of the day…the doppler estimated rain totals. There are some areas up across northern MO that have seen 4-6″ of rain from the overnight storms.

Those storms were pushing an outflow boundary to the southwest all late evening onwards…it was just a matter of would that get to the KC area or not. Once it did near 12AM or so…you got storms. As a matter of fact the outflow created winds gusting to almost 35 MPH in parts of the area. When outflow winds are that gusting that strongly…that outflow will keep moving along.

The end result were some very needed rains for the grass if nothing else…

The storms actually were created up in IA…but this was an impressive MCS (complex of thunderstorms).. The overnight satellite pictures shows the evolution of what happened…

This large thunderstorm created rain cooled air mass…will be with us today. Here is the 9AM surface map…the temperatures are in RED.

The dew points have dropped off a bit…but the bigger drop off to them will come overnight.

Before that happens though there should be another wave of storms/rain…areas SW/S of KC that didn’t get anything last night should get something from this second wave tonight.

This will move out towards daybreak (or earlier) and then a gradual downwards trend in the dew points start to move into the region that will continue into Tuesday. Temperatures will be dropping off as well. 80-85° tomorrow…56-61° Tuesday morning and near 80° Tuesday afternoon.

From some of the nastiest summer weather to some of the best summer weather you could ask for in KC

The issue for tonight will be the development of new thunderstorms across the Plains that would be moving our way. There will still be some pretty decent heat happening towards the SW of the KC Metro area…and the instability will still be out there, especially farther south overnight.

The latest HRRR short range model shows the possible evolution of this…this will auto-update for you through the day

For timing…18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM and 03Z is 10PM…yada yada yada.

I’ll be curious to see how this all plays out, especially considering the chaotic nature of the atmosphere over eastern KS and western MO after what happened last night and this morning.

The SPC has placed the region in a slight risk for severe storms…

Areas towards the SW of the Metro may have the bigger risk..where there could be more heat to work with later today and more instability.

After this though…the nicer weather comes into the region…yes we will get warmer towards the end of the week…nothing extreme though…here is the EURO forecast for the next 10 days…

Not sure when we’ll get some rain again after tonight…but we’ll certainly enjoy the nicer weather for a few days.

Our feature photo comes from Liz Tuttle.

Have a great day and enjoy the break in the heat!


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