Every so often the weather dictates confusion and this weekend is one of those times. This creates doubt in my forecast/what I think is going to happen and despite certain players being on the field (a term I love) when analyzing precipitation chances there are still questions that are out there, mainly timing and where when it comes to the rain situation.
I’m still not convinced that we’re going to get a big rain out of this scenario this weekend. It can all change in the course of a few hours at least…but there are still doubts in my mind. The thing is, IF we can get storms to really organize then considering how juicy the atmosphere is it would just let loose with rainfall….on the order of 1-3″. How widespread this will be though is a BIG question in my mind.
The ingredients that are out there are surface moisture, dewpoints are now in the upper 60s and 70s…and moisture through the atmosphere, precipitable water (PW) is near 1.7″ (which is a lot!). We also have various little disturbances moving through the Plains states which should help the destabilization process to create storms and rain…look at this image from NEXLAB. See the little link moving through KS…that’s a wave.
Temperatures are really warming up as well. We’re well into the 80s now…and will heat up a few more degrees before the afternoon is done.
Storms are popping nicely to the south of the KC area as I type this, and the SPC is thinking about some sort of watch for the folks in SE KS and SW MO. It looks like whatever organizes there would be moving to the northeast towards the Lakes region.
Here is a look at the last 6 hours of radar data…
It seems to me we’ve got two areas of rain out there now that need to be watched…one is in NC KS that is moving towards the NE and the other is in SE KS that is also moving to the NE. How these develop this afternoon and turn will be the key to the metro storm chances tonight.
Some of our short range model data indicates the highest storm chances continue through midnight then start to drop off.
So how does this all come together?
Unfortunately the storm coverage will not be able to be pinned down with any confidence what so ever. So I still feel that their is a high end chance (60-70%) of storms through 3AM Sunday at least. Storm chances on Sunday PM may be tied to what happens through the Plains tonight and tomorrow AM…the chances tomorrow are about 30-40%. It should be noted that the NAM just nails us with storms in the PM tomorrow while the hi-res NAM waits till later tomorrow night into MON AM…so if nothing else the threat continues through Monday. IF you get no rain through Monday then that may do it for the opportunities for storms for a few days. Should you get no rain you’ll want to water because things are starting to dry out now with all the sun/wind and warmth we’ve seen over the last week or so.
I fully understand that this blog hasn’t really helped out figuring out the whens and the wheres of the potential rain, and I won’t be shocked if some of us get little to nothing out of this…hopefully though you’ll get some decent rain at some point through Monday.
It’s the weather, and as I always remind people trying to predict things that don’t exist is never easy to do.