KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Though most of Tuesday has been relatively quiet, a severe storm setup is in place for overnight across most of Kansas City, western Missouri, and eastern Kansas.
Warm temperatures this afternoon in the lower 80s (about 5 degrees above normal) are coupled with southerly winds and dew points in the 60s. These conditions are favorable for supporting springtime thunderstorms, and an approaching low pressure from Nebraska will get storms going this afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined an area where severe weather could be possible and a watch may be needed. This area includes our northwestern most counties in Missouri.
So as the storms develop over Nebraska this afternoon and evening, we will have a better idea of the organization and trajectory they might take. These storms will likely be in a mesoscale convective system (or MCS) which is a large cluster of storms that dive southeast away from the low pressure and frontal boundary.
It looks like tonight’s MCS will mainly be a line of damaging winds, but quarter-size hail is also possible. The tornado risk remains low and most likely up toward Nebraska.
Our in-house forecast model is on the right track with this severe storm setup. By 9-10 p.m. it shows a cluster of storms entering our northwestern zones from Nebraska. Then by midnight it shows a bowing line of damaging winds moving through the Kansas City metro and into Missouri.
This highlights the 60-70 mph damaging wind threat. When storm complexes “bow out,” it is caused by strong winds in the center of the storm complex surging ahead of the low pressure. Wind damage to trees may be possible in the leading edge of these storms in the overnight hours.
The good news is that the storms and rain should wrap up before sunrise on Wednesday, so tomorrow should not have any problems. It is just the midnight to 3 a.m. timeframe early tomorrow where the severe storms will be moving southeast and hopefully weakening.
Because this is an overnight severe weather threat, make sure you stay weather aware with the FOX4 Weather Team. Our free FOX4 news app will alert you to any severe weather alerts for your neighborhood, and you can livestream our newscasts and severe weather coverage in the app as well. Be sure to also follow our certified team of meteorologists on Facebook and Twitter.