More Ups Than Downs

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Our run of unbelievable weather (snowless) will continue for the next week or so, if not longer as there are no major storms looking to directly give us any meaningful chances of picking up much of the white stuff. Good morning and thanks for reading the blog to kick start your day. Oh and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @fox4wx. We picked up about 700 new followers last week and would like to pick up more and more over the coming weeks!

It wouldn’t be a blog without some crazy stat that I have for you. I emailed the NWS in Pleasant Hill wondering when we had our latest 1″ of snow into a winter season. Here we sit on 1/3 without our 1st inch yet. In reality we’ve only “officially” had 1/10″ or so this year @ KCI. So it got me wondering how long have we waited for our first inch of snow? With none in the forecast for the next 5-10 days are we heading towards any records. The answer at this point is now…take a look. We’ve waited one year till march for our “1st” 1″ of winter snow in the past.

4) 2/5/1989

3) 2/10/1923

2) 2/24/1934

And the latest 1st 1″ of snowfall is 3/6/1931.

In those snow seasons that we waited so long for our 1st 1″ of winter snow the overall totals, as you might suspect were rather paltry…with the exception of 1930-31.

In 1988-89 we had only 6.9″

1922-23: 4.5″ (Our all time record for the least amount of snowfall)

1933-34: 7.2″

1930-31: 14.6″

I’ll expand on this thought if I still have my paperwork with some additional information for the month of January this afternoon, if I can find it.

So, it goes without saying that the later we go into the winter season, waiting for snowfall the less we end up getting. The average snowfall for a winter season is 18.8″ over the past 30 years ending in 2010. The 30 yr average by now is 6.6″. So we’re a long ways from that but around here you can make up that deficit in one storm, heck you can immediately go from lacking snow to being on the plus side with one big storm, like int he last couple of years. The thing is that one big snow isn’t showing up in any of the model data for the foreseeable future.

What is showing up is a continued up and down temperature pattern that should continue for another week to 10 days. The ups are coming on THU-FRI as we make another run towards 60°. There may not be as much wind with this warmth as there was with what happened last Saturday (65° and 45MPH winds). With the lighter winds we may not be able to muster 65° but a run towards 60-63° is certainly doable. The records for THU-FRI are 68 and 64°, again IF there is a record that can be tied, it might be on Friday. That will depend on the timing of another cold front due in later Friday PM.

That front will cool us down over the weekend, probably to about 40° or so, give or take. From there we’ll do the whole thing all over again and warm-up early next week before potentially a strong cold front moves our way sometime later on the 11th or 12th sending us below average. What happens after that is what has my curiosity up again.

I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks (on the air or on the blog) that I think the other shoe would finally drop towards the middle of the month. The GFS certainly is trying to do something although it varies from run to run as t usually does past day 10 on the forecast.

Just for giggles here is the 16 day forecast off the GFS model from early this AM…that is some mighty cold air poised up along the US/Canadian birder area…you’re looking at the temperatures of the atmosphere at about 5K feet…it’s a good way for us to track the various airmasses as they move across the hemisphere.

Now should that airmass be lurking up there like this map above is showing, there is NO way it doesn’t get to us in one form or another. We’ll be smack  into the deepest part of the winter, typically our coldest and these airmasses always seem to find a way.

Just for fun here is the same map from the run right before the one above (last night)…for about the same time…

The map above would suggest a quick hitting shot of cold arctic air followed by moderation.

Here’s the thing though, with all these airmass changes, it’s still tough for us to generate any moisture…this map isn’t good IF your looking for snow, or for snow days for the kids.

Get this, the early AM run of the GFS gives us a whooping 1/100th of an inch of moisture into the 19th. These airmasses, should this lack of snow continue, here and to our north  would modify as the cold air runs over the snowless terrain “upstream” of KC. You can still get mighty cold, but certainly nothing that would break any records or anything.

I should mention that the latest EURO model would suggest the potential of a small accumulating snow around the 12th or so, associated with a pretty strong shot of NW Canadian air…but that snow looks somewhat suspect to me.

Finally if you’re heading to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas later this week for the game…good weather is expected into Friday. The gameday forecast is for highs near 68° and lows in the 40s. Not bad at all for early January!

Have a great day and I’ll try and update things this afternoon…


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