Thought I’d start this afternoon’s blog with a quick check of the NAM model showing the rainfall potential.
So far through 1PM here are some of the totals. Again KCI/St Joe and Topeka have all set records.
Lees Summit:: 1.06″
St Joe: .90″
Whiteman AFB: .25″
As I mentioned yesterday, normally there would be a lot of runoff with frozen soils but with the balmy weather this winter that won’t be the case.
Some are wondering about the snow aspect of the storm for us. I didn’t get a chance to talk about that this morning, but there would be at least the potential for some flakes of snow tomorrow late evening around here. I’m not expecting any accumulations for the KC area. The potential still exists for maybe a slushy 1-2″ across far N MO closer to the IA border.
Here is the latest surface map showing the storm and the wind flow around it.
I’m still expected clearing skies on Sunday.
The storm will actually move towards the NE up the I-35 corridor and then squirt out towards the east. As it does so tomorrow, the winds which have been breezy from the east will switch towards the NW. IF this storm was a normal storm, with a connection to Canada, we’d see the temperatures immediately start to plunge and the precip would turn over to a decent snow. That though isn’t the case. Notice in NE it’s still in the 30s, even up towards ND it’s around 30°, so there isn’t any Canadian air to plunge into the region.
Now here is a look at the morning blog.
Well that didn’t take long at all. The rain that has come down has already broken a record for the most precipitation for today’s day 2/3. The previous record was .64″ set back in 1901. So far through 9AM we’ve had .77″ @ KCI. Pretty impressive after essentially 2 1/2 hours of rainfall. Topeka has also broken their daily record with well over 1″ of rainfall today!
Remember, as I blogged about on Monday, the radar system is down @ Pleasant Hill, MO, so we’re relying on data from Topeka, Springfield and to a lesser extent Des Moines to get us through the storm.
No real changes are needed to the forecast. Temperatures are in the lower 40s now after a midnight high of 50°. My suspicion is that we’ll be waffling between 40-45 for the next couple of days.
The storm is now really starting to wind up through the western Plains states. Here is a look at radar.
That batch of rain down towards the Wichita area, as of this writing, is moving this way, so while there may be a brief tapering of the rain for a little while, that rain tot he SW of KC will be moving in for the afternoon hours.
Here is the satellite picture…
On the backside of the storm, there is a lot of snow falling right now. Some areas in CO have already had close to 2 feet and there is talk in Denver that this storm may break their February record for the most snow ever. The record is 14.2″ set back in 1912. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled into and out of Denver today. Denver has picked up about 3″ of snow in just the past 2 hours and already have 9+” on the ground! I-70 is closed in Colorado and Blizzard conditions exist for many areas out there.
Here is the latest weather story from Denver.
Now from Goodland, KS…
From Grand Island, NE:
Those snow amounts in NW MO are way overstated in my opinion.
Finally from Pleasant Hill:
I’ll get another update on the blog this afternoon. Stay dry and remember we really need the rain!