KANSAS CITY, Mo. — First and foremost, I must stress that the entire weekend is not a washout. A good majority of Saturday and even later Sunday are going to be dry.
They will be two drastically different days, but the focal point of this message is about Saturday after sunset and overnight.
A pretty significant system sets up out west which puts many areas in the 90s by the afternoon. We’re going to be right on the edge of that warmer air, and the position of this system by Saturday afternoon will have an impact on our severe weather threat later Saturday.
Our severe weather chances are going up as a few more areas are now included in the “Slight” risk for severe weather which is Category 2 of 5 from the Storm Prediction Center.
Our best window for storms looks to be after 9 p.m. Saturday. We’ll be watching areas out west carefully as storms develop in the afternoon.
Hail over one inch will be possible as well as 60-plus mph wind gusts. While the tornado threat is not incredibly high locally, it’s not totally out of the question that we have brief tornado or two locally.
Just after sunset, the strongest storms are expected to make their way east and into the immediate metro. At this point, I would expect our best chances for any brief tornado to be the greatest somewhere between 9 p.m.-midnight.
As it continues to work into our entire area, wind gusts and larger hail will become a concern as well. These storms will have the potential to produce some very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time.
As I mention often, don’t pay attention to the specific locations receiving 1/2 inch of rain vs. over 3 inches of rain. Pay more attention to the possibility that this happens. The reason being that as some of these thunderstorms develop and react with each other, they may slow down or move over the same location multiple times.
The setup is there to drive up rain totals over 3 inches for some of us and that would create some localized flooding. Stay Weather Aware and we’ll track these storms for you as they develop Saturday.