Severe weather timing and threats for Monday

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If you’ve missed the FOX4 weather team chatting about a severe weather setup this week or the giant red banner on the top of our website, I’m here to fill you in with the specifics.

We’re Weather Aware on Monday because the Storm Prediction Center has included most of the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather.

I’d like to include some of the specifics from what the SPC has highlighted for our area later Monday.

We mentioned the possibility of hail, but what does 5% and 15% exactly mean? Those numbers seem low, so what gives?

That’s the probability of 1-inch hail within a 25-mile radius. In addition to that, the area with the shaded lines includes 2-inch hail possibility within 25 miles. So that’s actually a lot more significant than it seems, right?

The tornado risk uses the same wording, and once again, it’s the possibility of a tornado within 25 miles of any given shaded area. Chances aren’t GREAT for a tornado tonight, but they’re definitely not ZERO.

Our breakdown on what to expect throughout the metro and the rest of FOX4’s viewing area focuses mainly on hail and straight-line winds, with flooding the main danger overnight.

Now to break down the timing for you.

A couple of storms may pop up early in the evening Monday, but I think the better threat for storms to develop will be closer to sunset.

As we get closer to that sunset time frame, I want you to look at the specifics of how these storms are developing in this particular look at a projected radar image.

They’re a little bit separated from each other and are in small clusters as opposed to one big line. This is the best time frame for hail and an isolated tornado in my opinion.

As we head into the overnight hours, this is when a few straight-line wind gusts could be a threat. But I think the main threat will be flash flooding and repeated rainfall over the same areas (training).

We’re under a Flash Flood Watch until early Thursday morning as a result. Several more rounds of heavy rain are expected over the coming days.

Some of the projected rainfall totals are very close to last week’s heavy rainfall totals as well. Between 2-4 inches of additional rainfall are possible by Thursday morning with some locally higher amounts.

Remain Weather Aware over the coming days as well because there are additional severe weather threats the next couple of days that the FOX4 Weather team will keep you updated on.

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