System Slows Down More/Shifts South

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For a storm that was progged to go across the western Plains states and eventually into the upper Midwest, this thing has certainly been on a slow shift south on the models, and today’s NAM model now takes the storm even a little to the south. If you’ve been reading the blogs this week, and look back to the earlier thoughts, you can see how this storm has been gradually transitioning. For days we’ve watched it off the CA coastline, now that it’s onshore we are seeing continued southwards adjustments to it’s forecast track.

This has done several things to our forecast for tomorrow in my opinion. In some ways it really doesn’t alter the forecast much, in the timing category though it certainly does. One thing through that hasn’t changed is the availability of rich, golf moisture which is sitting to the south of the area this AM. Here is the latest surface map showing the available moisture down towards the Red River.

So it’s sitting there, and unless this storm goes A LOT farther south, which I don’t think it will, that moisture will stream right up towards us tonight and tomorrow. As this occurs tonight, whatever low temperature occurs will happen early in the evening as the higher surface moisture (dewpoints) moves in the evening, the temperature will actually be forced up as the night goes on and when you wake up tomorrow readings may be in the 60s. There could be some showers in the region, maybe even a rumble of thunder as well with this transition. It will certainly feel more on the muggy side tomorrow as dewpoints may be close to 65° which is more like a mid-Spring set-up.

So with the moisture here now we wait on the storm itself which continues to slow down, and this creates a forecast problem for tomorrow. Should this slower and now even farther south track hold, we’d be waiting even longer for the real rain to get here…and since we’d be solidly in the warm, moist air by mid morning, we’d still need to wait for a trigger to get rain to actually form near the metro. The latest data indicates that the best chance of rain will be in areas N/NW of the Metro through lunch tomorrow. Then our rain chances would start to increase tomorrow afternoon and continue through Sunday daybreak (note the later end time). The thing is with the dry line/cold front still hanging SO FAR to the west of the region on Saturday into Saturday night, I question how much severe weather there could really be closer to home. With the storm taking a farther south track, even the wind fields aloft aren’t nearly as strong as they could be or were forecasted to be a couple of days ago. This also would reduce the scope of the convective winds inside the individual cells. I’m still expecting some severe weather, but with the ingredients for this scenario being, I think, somewhat out of whack for the Metro,, perhaps the storms will be more on the borderline severe side as opposed to seeing widespread severe activity. Here is the weather map for 1AM Sunday morning…

So what am I expecting for the weekend:

Saturday 6AM-Noon-Muggy for October conditions with gusty south winds of 25-35 MPH. Scattered showers/patches of drizzle in the region. damp roads early because of the moisture coming in contact with the cooler road temperatures.

Saturday Noon-6PM: Off and on fast moving rains in the area. Moving up from the SW. Tricky to do things outside and you should need an umbrella at various times.

Saturday 6PM-Midnight: Storms should fire WELL west of the region, towards central KS/OK. These storms then rapidly move NE/NNE and move into the metro later Saturday evening. If there is going to be severe weather, it would be somewhere in this time-frame. Especially after 9PM. Line of storms then moves off towards central/northern MO.

Sunday 12AM-6AM: Additional storms/rains move through areas, especially on the south side. Perhaps some severe weather closer to the Lakes region. Locally heavy rainfall possible there.

Sunday 6AM-Noon: Any rain in the morning on the backside of the storm will be zipping out of here, clearing skies and a set-up for a pleasant Sunday afternoon with drier air and highs in the 70s.

For the KU and MU football games…both start @ 2:30 and there should be the threat of rain affecting the KU game off and on for most of the game, especially in the 2nd half. MU will be close but bring the rain gear as well, mainly for the later part of the game. At least it will be warm. Finally if you’re heading to Arrowhead for the game there (NW MO State v Pittsburg state), bring the rain gear to be safe as well. I’ll be tweeting for you the game day forecasts tomorrow AM. So follow me @fox4wx on twitter for more info on that.

Something tells me this storm still is going to throw us a few more curve balls when all is said and done.

Joe

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