8PM Update-Severe Weather Risk

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With the exception of far NW MO where a Tornado Warned cell (now cancelled) continues to move NE through Atchison County, things continue to be quiet for most of the area. Here is a look at radar @ 7:50PM.

A Tornado Watch continues NW of the metro.

Nothing is threatening the metro KC area. We may escape tonight without getting much of anything which wouldn’t surprise me at all at this point.

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Things continue to slowly evolve, but as I stressed on the Noon show today, the risk of severe weather for the Metro continues to be VERY low through the early part of this evening. As a matter of fact for most of the viewing area the risk is LOW through 8PM or so. There is one area though that may have issues before then and that would be far NW MO and NE KS, as highlighted this morning in the AM weather blog.

Here is the latest surface map. It’s impressive for a couple of reasons, one is the strong warm front that is pushing from the south to the north. The other is the surface low that will slowly migrate towards NE KS this evening and overnight. That surface low will be a key player in determining whether or not there could be an isolated tornado. Here is the latest surface map.

Click on that image to make it larger. The numbers in RED are the temperatures…the numbers in GREEN are the dewpoints…notice that our dewpoints are in the lower 60s which indicates the gulf moisture certainly is present. That’s why it feels pretty muggy out there. So there are ingredients out there for some big storms but there are some things lacking, most importantly a decent wave in the mid levels of the atmosphere to really spark things off. There is also, for the area that I’m most concerned about, an issue with instability, due to copious amounts of cloud cover, that is showing signs of breaking up somewhat. Here is the latest visible sat photo…note that as the sun goes down you’ll see the clouds disappear.

A couple of things you can see, one blob of cloud cover, associated with a disturbance across NE MO, responsible for the storms across NE MO. Also note the sunshine/mostly clear skies across our region from KC southwards and also note the breaking up of the clouds across NW MO, leading to instability building up there as well.

The SPC continues to watch the region for the potential of rough weather. MY feelings at this point haven’t changed. I think the METRO is fine through 8-10PM or so. In other words we should be storm free in the KC area. From 6PM-10PM we’ll need to watch what happens more closely up across NW MO and NE KS closer to the IA/NE border area as we track where that surface low goes. The closer it gets to that area, the higher the chances that should storms fire up there, there would be an increasing chance of seeing rotating storms.

After 8-10PM, the storm chances here in the METRO would be on the increase. Our main severe threat appears to be with wind and hail. This chance will linger through the wee hours of Friday AM. My thoughts are that this will be an issue through 3AM then after that things calm down and tomorrow turns into a very nice day.

The later the storms hold off the less of a chance of seeing widespread severe weather for the METRO. It would NOT surprise me to see many areas MISS OUT on this potential. This by no means is a slam dunk event for the KC Metro area. Some of our short term models indicate not a lot of action for most of the viewing area except the NW and NC part of MO and NE KS. It does seem like areas farther south of KC may miss out entirely from this “event” or whatever you want to call it.

I’ll continue to keep watching that for you later this afternoon and tonight.

Joe

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