This blog will be a bit shorter than others because I have a lot of stuff going on this AM, including getting a flat tire fixed amongst other things. Always nice to fix a flat tire on a highway at 11:30 at night, hoping that somebody is not texting and driving near the shoulder of the road.
With that said the rain that has been forecasted for days will get here, but we’re going to have to wait for tomorrow for that to happen. Our storm, is still down across N MX but the effects of the storm have been generating rainfall as close to KC as SW MO and NE OK. The rain though as it moves northwards, runs away from the storm itself and quickly falls apart.
You can see the swirl down there, and eventually it will come out towards us. Here is a look at the 18,000 foot level (500 mbs) showing the progress and weakening of the storm.
Notice how the storm is “cutoff” from the northern jetstream. That’s why it’s been so slow moving and just sort of spinning around down there.
The rain should start tomorrow AM…and move through off/on through the day into the evening. Here is the NAM model showing the rain heading this way.
You can sort of make out that there will be an east/west oriented rain band that moves our way from the south before AM rush tomorrow. So it may be raining during rush hour in the morning on THU…with more showery/drizzly weather expected in the PM. The newest NAM gives KCI about 1/2″ of rainfall although the GFS isn’t quite that robust…so again no real change needed in my forecast rainfall thoughts from the last 3-4 days or so. Let’s hope we can do better…although the storm will be running into a lot of dry air, below 10,000 feet, which will eat away at the rain for awhile as it moves our way.
The latest GFS also is suggesting some snow on Sunday, especially just (!) SE of the KC area. It’s been signalling this off and on for a few days and changing the timing of the potential. At this point I’m not buying it but will continue to monitor the trends. Just expect a cold weekend, with perhaps some clouds keeping the highs in check and the lows from bottoming out.
Regarding Friday’s potential record highs…still very doable. Record is 65° set back in 1960. There still may be some clouds filtering out the sunshine, but by the same token there should be enough wind to mix/stir the air very efficiently. The core of the warmest part of this airmass, ahead of the Canadian front will be right on top of us during the middle of the day. Forecast soundings suggest mid to upper 60s are VERY doable, so on the assumption the clouds don’t filter through we may be golden. The negative may be some winds gusting to about 35 MPH or so.
If anything looks more interesting this afternoon, I’ll write an update to the blog. Have a great day and sorry for the shorter blog today.