Happy Halloween. It’s shaping up to be a wonderful day in the region as skies gradually clear out this morning and we expect quite a bit of sunshine for the day.

We’ve had no issues approaching 70° for highs around these parts and this week we should do that rather easily…so a warm end to October and a warm start to November are all on tap. That is the treat of the week.

The trick is a rather substantial chance of significant rains starting Friday into Saturday. A strong upper level storm will be coming up from the southwest…it will be a warm and moisture laden system that will tap into a lot of Gulf moisture.

It will be a somewhat slow mover and impact our area for a couple of days…this means substantial rains are possible for many areas…including thunderstorms with some locally heavy rains too. That is the trick to the forecast, although considering the drought we’re in…we’ll also file that into the treat category.

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Forecast:

Today: Clearing out and mild with highs near 70°

Tonight: Fair and cool with lows in the lower 40s

Tomorrow: Nice with highs in the mid 70s. Breezy in the afternoon

Wednesday/Thursday: Windy…gusts to 35 MPH and warm with highs well into the 70s

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Discussion:

Halloween weather around here can be rather varied. We’ve had snow…rain…some heat…and some darn chilly days…but today will be on the milder side of things…with 50s expected for all the ghosts and goblins tonight.

Here is a look at the last 40 years of Halloweens around these parts.

Back in ’93 there was a morning low of 17°…back in 2017 and 2002 it snowed and in 1990 it was 81°. The record high is 87° in 1950

A quick count shows over the past 40 years we’ve had 10 Halloween days with highs 70° or higher and 9 days with highs 50° or lower.

Today will be closer to the 70° or higher category which is a good thing. No rain chance. We’ve had 15 days with at least .01″ of moisture in the last 40 years on Halloween.

The week is going to be a warm one. Our average high this week is around 60° or so…and we’ll be above average into Friday and probably Saturday as well. Most days will be in the 70s too.

The system that will be responsible for the rain that’s coming…and potentially even severe weather in the southern Plains is out towards Alaska this morning.

It doesn’t look like a lot on the satellite loop…but if you look carefully towards the eastern AK coast as well as off western Canada…can you notice the lumpiness of the clouds. That’s indicative of a cold pocket of air in the atmosphere and a dip in the jet stream.

That dip in the jet stream looks like this when we take you up to around 18,000 feet up ant look about half way up into the atmosphere.

The smaller X near St Louis is the remnants of the system that essentially gave us nothing but clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or two these last couple of days. The bigger X off Alaska is the system that we’re watching for the end of the week and into at least part of next weekend. It’s deeper and stronger than the St Louis system.

So let’s follow the modeled path of this system while realizing that there will be some shifts in exactly where this goes Friday into Sunday and how quickly it moves along.

Note how the system drops into the SW USA then curls up through the southern Plains and potentially comes right on top of KC on Saturday. That is a path that would 1) create areas of rain and storms in the southern Plains and central Plains. That activity would race towards the NE and NNE at quick speed and bring alternating waves of rain into our region starting on Friday.

Deterministic model forecasts are very bullish with 2-4″ worth of rain around the region.

Euro model
GFS model
Canadian model

Their various ensembles are in agreement mostly as well with a heavy rain producing system. What will need to be watched is whether or not this passes farther west of the region. IF so that may reduce the rain amounts somewhat…but still a good moisture laden system will affect the region.

Data this morning indicated 2 1/2 to 4+ times the average amount of moisture in the atmosphere (that is tremendous!) and would be indicative of a wet drought breaking type system coming through the Plain region.

The area outlines shows moisture amounts 2 1/2 times normal…that is excessive.

With that type of saturated atmosphere…it’s no wonder the models are so gung ho on the rain totals.

I won’t be surprised if there are some downward trends in the totals but even IF that were to happen…we should still be looking at widespread 1-2″ amounts…and likely more than that.

This system may be a severe weather generator as well as we are in the 2nd severe weather season in the US…this typically happens as we see more of a battle of air masses develop with the colder and warmer air fighting it out with these bigger storms.

Severe risk on Thursday
Severe risk on Friday

From the SPC.

“Severe potential appears most likely across portions of the TX Panhandle into northwest OK and western KS beginning Thursday evening into the overnight hours as stronger height falls and
increasing ascent spreads eastward into western portions of the central/southern Plains. Forecast soundings indicate thermodynamic and shear profiles favorable for organized cells capable of all
severe hazards. On Friday, the surface front is forecast to move slowly eastward across western TX/OK. A combination of heavy rain and severe potential is expected, with greatest relative severe potential likely focused across southern portions of OK into western/central TX near and south of a surface low.”

This severe weather will likely remain south and west of the KC region…but always worth watching the data for the next few days or so for any NEwards adjustments to things.

Ahead of the storm the winds will be in the increase…breezy tomorrow and then gusts to 45 MPH possible on Wednesday and Thursday…perhaps Friday as well.

So a lot happening this week in the world of weather. Right now things look to be moving along at such a pace that the weather for the game on Sunday night looks OK.

The feature photo is from Valerie out towards Clinton Lake in Douglas County

Joe