The rains were still coming this morning, at times moderate, and with morning rush hour timing it was not a pretty start to the day again in the region.

The saving grace for now is that the temperatures remain very mild for this time of the year. We started the day in the 60s (above our average highs for late October) and today will be the last of the mild-to-warm day for quite some time.

A series of cold fronts will be sweeping into the region starting tomorrow before daybreak. This will effectively replace the warmer air with chillier air in a step down over the weekend.

The air will progressively get colder on Sunday as well setting up several mornings of temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s. and while many haven’t had a frost yet, most to all are likely to have a hard freeze early next week.

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One sentence forecast: More rain this morning but drier in the afternoon with a strong front coming early Friday morning.

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Forecast

Today: Showers through mid-to-late morning then generally cloudy in the afternoon. Remaining warm with highs in the lower 70s.

Tonight: Cloudy and warm, steady temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s. Before daybreak there may be a thin line of showers coming through as well. We’ll have a 12AM high for Friday.

Tomorrow: Falling to steady temperatures as the day moves along. Temperatures mostly in the 40s with perhaps a brief shower before 9AM… most of the day will be dry though.

Saturday: Partly cloudy in the morning with increasing clouds. Rain develops in the mid-to-late afternoon from west to east. Chilly with temperatures maxing out in the mid-40s with breezy conditions

Sunday: Rainy in the morning with perhaps some lighter rains in the afternoon. Some areas, mainly north of the Metro may see some ice pellets or snowflakes mix in as well. Cold with temperatures only in the upper 30s to near 40°. Breezy as well. A miserable day.

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Discussion

Well, at least it’s mild out there!

Aside from that, nothing really good in the forecast for the next few days into the weekend really. This set-up with a series of cold fronts coming southward isn’t that unusual for late October, and it will certainly catch your attention if you’re getting used to the mild weather.

This morning’s weather map shows our cold front out towards the Plains… very slowly moving toward the region.

As we expected last night another wave has come up from the south and southwest this morning to start our day. It won’t last that much longer. This wave though has helped to bring more widespread rain to the region, and that would include northern Missouri and out toward the Lakes region. Two areas that haven’t had the same rains that we’ve had here in the Metro for the last couple of days.

Rain totals over the past from stormwatch.com

Regionally the last 72 hours gives us this…

Notice that area toward Emporia… there are some 10-12″ totals in there just northwest of I-35 near the turnpike.

Our cold front will be moving into the region between 3-6 AM or so from north to south tomorrow morning.

This will shove the warm air away and allow chillier air to replace it.

Here is a look at how the HRRR model shows the transition. This animation starts at 7PM tonight and goes through 6PM Friday. Each hour the map updates in the animation. For timing…3Z is 10PM…6Z is 1AM…9Z is 4AM…12Z is 7AM…15Z is 10AM…and 18Z is 1PM etc.

You can see us dropping from the mid-to-upper 60s to the lower 40s tomorrow afternoon. This transition to the 40° range could happen a few hours faster as well tomorrow as models typically underestimate the push and strength of these chillier air masses.

There will be wind as well with this… making it feel closer to 30° as the day moves along!

Remember the heavier coats tomorrow!

This chilly air mass will deepen into tomorrow night and skies may actually clear out as well allowing temperatures Saturday morning drop into the low-to-mid 30s.

Then we start with dry weather on Saturday and perhaps some sunshine… it won’t last long though as clouds quickly come up from the SW and west. Rain should break out by mid-afternoon Saturday so our warming off those cold lows will be tempered by noon or so.

As a result it may only be in the mid-40s towards lunch before the rains come dropping temperatures a few degrees… miserable later in the day Saturday. This could be another 1/4″-1″ or so of rain.

Then there may be a lull for awhile Saturday night as the better moisture is more focused SE of the I-35 corridor. Still not treat.

Sunday morning some additional showers are possible, and with the lower part of the atmosphere colder, it’s not out of the question for flakes or ice pellets to mix in. There are still questions about the flakes forming in the clouds themselves because temperatures aloft may remain just above 32°, but below that would support ice pellets/sleet.

Not a pleasant day regardless.

The sunshine finally returns on Monday, but as we clear out Sunday night temperatures tank into the mid 20s and we may be in that area Tuesday and Wednesday morning as well.

If you’re wondering, we should moderate nicely towards next Thursday and especially on Friday of next week, which is typical after these cold shots in the fall season.

Side note: Pictures and videos coming out of Acapulco are horrific. So much damage from Otis.

It’s probably not getting it’s share of attention with everything else happening in the country and world, but this was a nasty hurricane strengthening as it approached. There are questions about how strong the winds actually were at landfall and we don’t have really any pressure data or airport observations that I’ve seen. Communications are extremely sketchy but the pics aren’t good.

The glass buildings have taken a huge hit from this.

Also if you’re heading out to Colorado and the Denver area for the game on Sunday… there is a decent chance of accumulating snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Several inches are possible. Note that these early season snows can be fickle there, so stay up to date. Regardless highs in the 20s to near 30 are likely for the day Sunday… so it’s cold for sure.

Another update tomorrow.

The feature photo is from Chuck Carbajal out in Lees Summit

Joe