Well, it’s been awhile since I blogged last. I was in Northern MI for some vacation time hitting the various wineries and breweries and getting a nice dose of fall colors in as well.
It was unseasonably warm up there for most of my time until the very end when colder air spilled into the Lakes region. Since then it’s been chilly and damp, so that was a perfectly timed out vacation from a weather standpoint.
Here there is definitely fall in the air. The leaves are still on the slow side of changing but that may accelerate over the coming days with the cooler mornings ahead.
There is going to be a good amount of wind and decent rain chances this week as well all tied to a seasonably strong storm moving through the Plains region Wednesday and Thursday. That will be the main item this week in addition to the temperature changes this week as well.
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One sentence forecast: Lots of sunshine but cooler today with increasing mid-week rain chances.
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Forecast:
Today: Mostly sunny and cooler with highs in the upper 60s
Tonight: Fair and chilly with lows in the 40° range
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with a few more clouds in the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Breezy as well
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with perhaps a few morning showers/storms. Highs will be closer to 80°. Breezy as well
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Discussion:
Well, there are all the fall vibes out there these days. A lot of bright blue skies and either mild or cool afternoons depending on whatever air mass moves through the region.
This week will feature both warmer days…and chillier days. A rather typical fall storm will be the main story this week as it moves into the Plains region. These systems usually help heat thigs up and then rapidly cool thigs off over the course of several days and that will be the case this time as well.
The system in question is out in the northern Pacific Ocean…south of Alaska. On the following satellite loop you can see two decent storms. One on the far right towards British Columbia and the other south of Alaska. The one for us is the 2nd one.
That system will come eastwards and move into the Plains region later Wednesday and Thursday.
The view above is the 500 mb maps showing the flow at around 18,000 and you can see the darker blue upper level storm dropping into the western US and moving into the Plains.
This system will be dropping underneath a large blocking high in Central Canada which if this was winter would be a favorable snow set-up for parts of the US.
This will be a classic Plains storm that will feature a stronger area of low pressure with a warm front and a stronger cold front attached to it. Here is the EURO forecast for Thursday afternoon.
In time on Thursday with warmer south winds cranking away bring in warmth and higher dew points…instability will start to build on Thursday.
The issue though for the rain for KC is that the front is still well west of here on Thursday so any convection will likely be out towards central KS initially and then spread towards the ENE and a pretty quick speed.
The SPC has highlighted a small area in eastern KS with the risk of potentially some severe storm.
We’ll see about this because IF the storms form too far west, by the time they arrive here later Thursday night they may be weaker.
This is a more typical scenario during this time of the year but should the storms hold together…winds and smaller hail would be an issue it appears. Whatever blows through…will be speeding through at close to 50+ MPH or so.
Then we should turn considerably cooler and windy on Friday with temperatures closer to 60°. With morning sunshine and PM clouds.
Also of note is the potential of some rain later tomorrow night into Wednesday morning as we transition from a cool air mass to a warmer air mass. Brief storms would be possible with this later tomorrow night before rapidly shoving off towards northern/central MO.
This wind will impact our early fall colors. The trees have been pretty stressed this season between drought…then heavy rains…the quasi drought again in various areas.
The latest fall color report via explorefall.com shows this for today.
and this forecast in about 10 days
Notice some areas into central MO may approach peak color just after mid month.
So a couple of final notes…
- The rain scenario may impact the game, especially toward the 2nd half on Thursday night. It’s possible it waits till afterwards though but right now the chance is there.
- There is an annular eclipse Saturday morning into early afternoon which will be seen in KC. We’re not in the best spot for this but you will have the ability of seeing something.
In terms of the percentage of the sun that will be blocked out…we’re going to be about 60%
There are several different types of eclipses…the one we experienced several years ago in KC was a total eclipse…this one is different.
Via NASA…
“An annular solar eclipse happens when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth, but when it is at or near its farthest point from Earth. Because the Moon is farther away from Earth, it appears smaller than the Sun and does not completely cover the Sun. As a result, the Moon appears as a dark disk on top of a larger, bright disk, creating what looks like a ring around the Moon.”
There is more information here.
I do have some concerns about clouds being an issue here for this…especially from KC northwards.
Also of note and this is important…this is the type of eclipse that you SHOULD NOT look at with the naked eye. Don’t stare at this type of eclipse as you can damage your retinas in your eyes.
Remember those funny little shades you used for that last big eclipse in KC…pull those back out and use them again if you have them. There are some stores that are selling them as well again.
The feature photo is from Ron Keplinger out in Baldwin City, KS
Joe
