It’s the most important Victory Monday of the year today, and what a day Mother Nature will be dishing out to us.

The bright sunshine will warm things up nicely this afternoon, approaching 60° in many areas, perhaps doing a bit better for some, although with lighter winds, which is a combination that we don’t get that often in February around these parts.

On the other hand, tomorrow will be windier and quite a bit wetter as rain chances arrive before daybreak and wet weather is expected off and on for Valentines Day.

The hope would be that towards evening things may be on the drying trend. There may be some stronger storms in the mid-to-late afternoon as well for parts of the area… especially up north.

Then there is the system on Thursday which will bring the wintry weather with it. It doesn’t appear KC will be the target of the heaviest snow at this point…things would need to shift more than 100 miles father south…certainly possible but NW MO is more under the gun with the heavier snows from this it appears.

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Forecast

Today: Sunny and mild with highs more than 15° above average… near 60°.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with some rain possible by daybreak. Lows in the 40-45° range.

Tomorrow: Windy and rainy in the morning. Highs into the 50s. There should be breaks in the rain in the afternoon with potentially some limited sunshine as well.

After that some scattered storms or rains are likely after 3PM… moving quickly from west to east. There is a small risk of severe weather in the mid-to-late afternoon.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cooler but still not too bad with highs in the mid 40s. Milder farther south of KC.

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Discussion

This is going to be an active week of weather, and on the positive side of things, we’re likely putting the last nail into the drought coffin I think. Many areas have had quite a bit of moisture these last few months. Last week brought 1-2″ of moisture to many areas, and the system tomorrow may bring an additional 3/4″ to 1 1/2″+ to some areas as well.

Last week’s drought report, which didn’t include the heavier precip/snow that we saw, had this data:

The Kansas side of things are certainly worse, and the area in eastern KS will be knocked down even more.

So there are two storms we’re watching for the week. Let me introduce you to storm #1

The precipitation amounts for the next couple of days shape up like this…

This system will be a big snow maker, but mostly in the higher terrain of the SW US, including AZ and western CO. and into the northern Rockies as well

The storm in question will be coming out of AZ tonight and moving into the Plains and then zipping towards the NW of the Metro tomorrow night. As that happens, the second storm will be dropping “into the slot” and into the SW US, poised to come through the region on Thursday morning.

You can see the set-up by going up to about 20,000 feet and tracking the storm.

As the first storm comes out, rain will spread toward the Plains and up the I-35 corridor by daybreak tomorrow. Here is the surface forecast below. Notice the track of the surface storm, toward the NW of the region. This places KC and many areas in the warm sector of the system, so we can’t get snow from storm #1.

Areas towards the upper Midwest though are more vulnerable to at least some accumulations.

Locally, this is just rain, but what bears watching is the second component to storm #1. The potential of some instability to develop during the mid-afternoon in advance of a smaller disturbance coming up from the southwest.

The concern is that the winds in the atmosphere will be strong and increasing as you go from the surface to around 20,000 feet where they will likely be cranking at nearly 65 MPH.

That is what we refer to as speed shear. In addition, the winds will be veering from the south towards the SW, that is what we refer to as directional sheer.

While we won’t have eye-popping instability, during this time of the year shear with limited instability and a surface low not that far away can get things going and with the shear, you can get a phenomena called “low-topped supercells” where despite the storms not being super tall into the atmosphere like what is more typical later during the bulk of our severe weather season, these lower-topped storms can rotate.

While doubtful, data continues to show enough rotational potential that a storm may generate some severe weather, and while smallish hail is the main threat, IF things come together a random tornado chance is there. Very small, but not zero.

The SPC is identifying an area towards NW MO/NE KS for this risk…I’d bring this a bit farther towards the south just in case.

The storm will push the warm air of today and tomorrow towards the I-44 corridor as a warm front sets up to the south. This is OK for us for the Victory/Celebration Parade on Wednesday, but since the warm front will be toward the south and we’ll have N/NE winds, it just won’t be able to warm up a lot. Expect low-to-mid-40s in the afternoon on Wednesday.

Not terrible and better than the last Victory Parade a few years ago where there was some light snow and cold conditions.

Now let me introduce you to storm #2. Its along the western Canada coastal region.

Storm #2 will drop into Northern AZ on Wednesday morning then come into the Plains early Thursday morning. This will allow cold air to continue to drain into the region Wednesday night.

Mixed precipitation will develop initially, light though, but as temperatures fall slowly this can create some issues on the roads by daybreak Thursday.

The mixed precip should change to at least some snow before ending Thursday before lunch. So it appears the main impacts will be during the first part of the day on Thursday and a potential snow day/virtual day may be in the cards for school districts.

This will also be a cold day with temperatures likely only in the 20s. IF there is some afternoon clearing we could be a few degrees warmer.

There does appear to be a bigger snow issue for areas towards the IA Border. 2-6″ of snow may be on the table up towards the St Joe north region.

We’ll have to watch that potential to slide toward the south, but right now, based on the track of the disturbance, that might be shearing out as it approaches the region. It seems the heavier snow aspect of this will be farther north of the Metro.

So a busy week will conclude with that storm as we should see a nice warm-up later toward the weekend, especially IF we can get though Thursday without much snow to melt off as the warmer air returns to the region with the gusty winds again for the weekend.

The feature photo is the sunset from last night…as the Chiefs we’re getting their 1st of many touchdowns.

Joe