We’re running 5.4° above average so far this month and today will be a rather typical November day for KC thanks to the passage of a seasonable cold front overnight. Temperatures this morning started out in the upper 30s and we should respond into the 50-55° range this afternoon with bright sunshine.
The weekend won’t be too bad really. Rain is possible at some point later Sunday into early Monday. This won’t be a “big” storm for us I don’t think…if we could get 1/4″-1″ of rain on average that would be nice. Some may do a bit better, others not so much.
There is some good news that perhaps we could dry things a bit more toward Monday evening, but I still think drizzle or mist is possible into the game.
Beyond that, though, there is some debate about cold and snow potential. The GFS is starting to flip and flop around regarding the cold air…the EURO isn’t quite as cold for next week…so there is a lot going on for next week that we have to work through.
One sentence forecast: Nice today, better tomorrow and not terrible on Sunday with pleasant temperatures through the weekend for November.
Today: Sunny and cooler with highs in the lower 50s
Tonight: Clear and chilly with lows in the upper 20s
Tomorrow Sunny and warmer with highs in the lower 60s
Sunday: Increasing clouds with showers possible later in the day and highs in the low-mid 50s
This is the time of the year where forecasts can turn on a dime, especially beyond the 3rd or 4th day.
It’s unfortunate, and we try to be consistent day in and day out but the weather becomes more and more volatile and weather features, as the air in Canada gets colder while the air in the deep south still holds on to it’s warmth, get stronger.
Where those features go and how strong they are really can play havoc with how things play out. The interactions between the various jet streams merging or not merging together is a big troublemaker for us and elsewhere in determining just how cold we can potentially get.
We are also into the time of the year where the models try to sniff out possible snow makers. They are doing that now with a potential system for later next Friday or Saturday.
So again…a lot of adjustments to the forecast are the rule usually in active patterns and fast moving patterns…so here we are.
These last 2+ weeks have been rather predictable. It’s been nice and warm really. The expected cold front last night came through with little fanfare and what cold air comes through today will quickly move away overnight as southwest winds kick in. This means a wonderful Saturday as highs push into the lower 60s for many areas.
Sunday is a day that should be a transition. Likely though only a slow transition during the morning as clouds increase and we try to warm up again. Those clouds will lower and thicken up and some rain is possible in the afternoon or evening as a piece of our western storm comes into the Plains.
It’s not a very coherent system but there should be enough moisture around to at least get some rain out of it later in the day into Sunday night.
That rain will likely linger into Monday, lightly I think. With clouds, moisture and cooler air in place…a drizzly misty Monday is likely. There may be some drying for the game but I’d hate to totally count on that right now. Temperatures obviously will be chillier as well with breezy conditions.
Here is a rain forecast from the NWS…there is some upside to those totals as some off the models are generating 1″ + in some areas…and I do think the bulk of the rain will be over with (in terms of amounts) by Monday morning.
This system then will leave behind a trail of moisture and cool air into Tuesday. Mostly in the form of clouds that may linger for a while.
Then things get more complicated into the holiday. Yesterday the GFS dumped a rather cold air mass into the Plains. The 1st GFS run for the day did as well but then the overnight GFS run (6Z) run, flipped and flopped like a fish out of water.
From a practical standpoint…take a look at how the temperatures changed from run to run on the GFS…that is a BIG flip flop.
This map shows the actual change in temperature forecasts from run to run. So for us the change was 15-20° warmer for Wednesday afternoon.
and for Thursday afternoon…
That’s a 25(!) flip flop for Thanksgiving.
The EURO did not do this crazy flip flop. Unfortunately it wasn’t in yesterday afternoon to use (and it’s almost always my preferred model of choice) and it would’ve been a nice counter to the then crazy cold the GFS was portraying. So I tried to balance things out last night.
My thoughts are that Wednesday and Thursday may not be as warm as what the GFS is now doing…and at this point may not be as bad as what we thought yesterday…likely 40s with dry conditions.
After that though it does get more interesting as we should get at least a partial dump of cold air from up north into the region on Friday. On the assumption that that is right, and I don’t want to get to deep into this…there may be a wave of sorts coming out of the Rockies into that colder air towards next weekend.
There are a lot of things that could go wrong with this…and it would be coming into a lot of dry air and the wave itself won’t be overly strong BUT there may be some jet stream dynamics that could help the cause here and it’s something to watch. The ensembles which I typically use at this time frame are trying to sniff something.
Here is the EURO ensembles showing the probability of at least 1″ of snow by the end of next Saturday…roughly around 30%
and the GFS ensembles…
About 20% with 30% probabilities north of 36 highway.
At this point it’s just sort of eye candy and something to watch really.
After having such a warm first half of November and then some, it’s not surprising to see a switch to a colder regime — and it won’t be surprising to see at least some snow in the region before the end of the month.
Remember we average 1.2″ of snow in November.
The feature photo comes from Austin Hamilton up in Chariton, IA.