Our great weather days are starting to dwindle, but there are still some left. It’s not that today will be that bad, but there are more clouds of the upper variety and perhaps in some areas of the lower variety that will be blocking out the sunshine.

This will keep temperatures in the mid-60s (perhaps lower than that in some areas) this afternoon. Yesterday we hit 70°.

The winds today will be brisk as well and from the south ahead of a cold front that will blow through overnight tonight. That will bring in more seasonable air for a day tomorrow before we warm back up over the weekend ahead of a bigger change for next week into the holiday weekend, and that will be colder air… with potentially an arctic connection.


One sentence forecast: Blustery winds with more mild temperatures and a lot of clouds today.

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Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy with some veiled sunshine. Windy with gusts to 30+ possible this afternoon and mild with highs in lower 60s

Tonight: Clouds and mild initially then turning blustery and colder with lows by daybreak in the upper 30s

Tomorrow: Breezy and cooler with highs in the lower 50s… more seasonable

Saturday: Sunny and warmer with highs in the 60° range

Sunday: Increasing clouds but the rain may hold off until later in the afternoon or evening as showers struggle to move eastwards. Still OK with highs in the 55-60° range again depending on the amount of sunshine during the morning.

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Discussion

The models have been sort of flipping and flopping around these last few days regarding next week. The main thing is, when does the cold air come into the region to hang out for awhile? This has direct implications on Thanksgiving and afterwards because there may well be some arctic air getting into the pattern later next week.

More on that in a few minutes.

First things first:

Today is different. The skies are not as blue, the winds not as calm, and the temperatures not as warm as yesterday. It’s still OK and still nicely above average, but the satellite picture shows the beginning of the change today.

Look carefully and you can see higher level clouds streaming in mostly above 20,000 feet. The other thing is look south, see that white area moving northward? That is lower cloud cover.

So, we’re being invaded by clouds below and above and that isn’t a recipe for big warmth. We may get stuck in the lower 60s this afternoon, still 10° above average for the day.

These clouds are surging north ahead of a cold front that will slice into the region tonight

This front will sweep away the milder air and replace it with more seasonable air tomorrow. The transition will come with wind in the wee hours of the morning, gusting to around 25 MPH and perhaps in a few areas with some sprinkles.

Tomorrow is more seasonable with sunshine.

Saturday looks fabulous.

Sunday starts transitioning to the long written and talked about storm, initially as a series of storms in Alaska then as a hot mess off the western US… and now as a more cohesive storm that brought rain to California.

This system comes into the region with clouds at first on Sunday. We may though get enough sunshine in the first few hours of the day on Sunday to warm us back well into the 50s before the clouds thicken up enough and rain becomes possible in the mid-afternoon or evening on Sunday.

This is connected to the storm out west as mentioned

It will break up in a few pieces as it comes ashore by Saturday morning, and one of those pieces will come into the region Sunday morning. This should thicken the clouds at a fast pace Sunday.

Then the whole thing evolves into an upper-level low in the Plains and broadly rotates over the region, while at the same time sinking moves eastwards on Monday.

While the rain amounts don’t look overly heavy, and it’s been a few weeks since our last rain, we could really use some as the drought report (more on this tomorrow) is worsening in some areas again, at least it will be something.

From the EURO

From the NWS…

Hopefully we get a 1/4″-1″ rain out of this… with higher totals west and south of the region it appears.

While this storm doesn’t have any Canadian air connected to it… it will sort of manufacture its own cold air on Monday. This means temperatures will be chilly on Monday, including for the game.

What is a bit of a change though is that there appears to be another wave coming down from Canada and may very well merge with our storm east of the region on Tuesday. This wave would have some Canadian air, and a bit of arctic air with it as it dumps into the upper Midwest and roars southwards Tuesday into Wednesday.

So much so that if we go up to around 5,000 feet by early Wednesday morning, that is a pretty substantial cold air outbreak coming through the eastern Plains and Great Lakes.

And because of the way the whole merged storm turns into a massive upper-level low toward the Lakes region that opens the door for more cold air to rush into the region and linger for awhile. The pattern at 18,000 feet for Wednesday is a classic cold outbreak for the area.

So I’ll likely be making some big changes to Wednesday and Thursday’s forecast for next week with cold air pouring into the area… a cold Thanksgiving is increasingly likely.

As this whole thing unfolds, the Pacific will be sending moisture toward the Rockies and potentially into the Plains. So we may well have the colder air around, now potentially moisture streaming above that colder air.

That gets a bit more interesting heading into next weekend.

The GFS model last night was the most aggressive with a full-fledged accumulating snowstorm next Friday. The Canadian has it as well. The GFS ensembles though really don’t (maybe some flurries) and the EURO really doesn’t either to a large extent, although they are showing some potential light snow in the region somewhere.

There would be a LOT of drier air in the atmosphere to overcome and the wave wouldn’t be overly strong that would potentially streak eastwards from the Rockies, but it’s something to watch and it’s still a week away, I guess.

Overall though, it does get chillier starting on Monday and that may last for the rest of November… so the bubble is about to burst on our nice mild days that we’ve enjoyed for most of November.

We’ll dive into the end of next week system perhaps more tomorrow.

The feature photo is from @BlueSpringsWx

Joe