Our much talked about storm system is starting to get better organized across the Plains this morning and will turn into a powerhouse of a low pressure area tonight and tomorrow as it moves toward the north of the region.

Moisture has been surging northwards overnight and this morning we are seeing quite a bit of cloud cover that will cut temperatures a bit today compared to yesterday.

The playout of the storm in Nebraska and a slow-moving front in the Plains is not a great set-up for a lot of rain in the Metro area. As I wrote about yesterday, I’m not overly confident that we’re going to see a lot of rain from this area-wide.

The best chance may be before daybreak on Friday, but it doesn’t look to be a lot in the big picture of things.

That is too bad because the drought continues to expand toward the north and northwest according to the latest drought update. While northern MO may have the best chance of seeing a few stronger storms and heavier brief downpours, I don’t think that will be widespread in the region as a whole.

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One sentence forecast: Lots of clouds and wind today with dry conditions and temperatures in the 75-80° range.

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Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy with more sunshine later this afternoon. Windy with gusts to 35 MPH. Warm with highs 75-80°.

Tonight: A small risk of a fast-moving shower coming up from the southwest after 9PM but overall there shouldn’t be much rain through 12AM. Showers are possible before daybreak. Breezy and mild with lows in the 55-60° range.

Tomorrow: Any showers end first thing, then some sunshine for a few hours followed by clouds in the afternoon. It’ll be blustery with temperatures in the 60s dropping into the evening. It will be chillier for Friday Night Lights.

Saturday: Generally cloudy and windy. A few sprinkles are possible. Highs in the mid-50s

Sunday: Not a lot of change. Hopefully more sunshine in the afternoon. Highs in the mid-50s

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Discussion

So while it’s going to be impressive looking on the weather maps today and tomorrow, this system isn’t going to do a lot of the Metro in the end.

Yes, there may be some rain… yes there will be a lot of wind… yes there will be colder air coming in for several days after a cold front comes through, but NO, there won’t be Metro severe weather… NO there won’t be a ton of rain, and hopefully there won’t be rain during the game, but it may be just towards the north or northwest of Arrowhead at some point toward the end of the game.

In a way that’s too bad… don’t want rain during the game obviously, but additional rains would be welcome overall as the drought continues to worsen and expand in the region.

You can see the change over the past few weeks. When the bar goes RIGHT it’s the report on September 19th. When it goes LEFT it’s the report from this week.

Notice how the “moderate drought” expands towards the northwest through the entire Metro. The severe and extreme drought conditions have shown little change on the MO side at least.

So obviously we could use a bunch of rain from this storm, and it likely just won’t happen on a widespread basis. There may be some decent local rains for well placed storms later tonight, but something that gives everyone a solid 1/2″ plus is likely NOT to happen.

The morning surface map shows a developing area of low pressure in the western Plains… with a warm front to the north (in red) and a developing cold front in the Rockies.

The moisture in the form of lower clouds is streaming north into the developing low pressure area (sort of acting like a vacuum). The blue dots on the map above represents airports that are reporting a lower cloud deck.

You can see that moisture on the satellite image this morning.

Areas farther east have more sunshine than farther west.

This cloud cover should prevent us from getting as warm as yesterday since it may be somewhat persistent through the early afternoon I think.

You can keep track of the developing storm below. Watch for the area of lower pressure moving through the Plains. The black lines are isobars, or lines of equal air pressure. The more lines there are in a relatively tight space the stronger the air pressure gradient is… and that’s why there is a lot of wind out there.

That area of low pressure will move into Nebraska today and then move eastwards (slowly) roughly along the I-80 corridor. The slow movement is an issue for the sunshine this week.

A lot of moisture is going to be wrapping around the back side of the storm into our region starting tomorrow afternoon. It may take till Sunday evening to finally rid ourselves of the storm.

There may even be a weak disturbance coming in from the northwest giving us a few sprinkles or showers at some point over the weekend.

So the end result of all this in terms of storms for us isn’t the greatest. The highest chance of storms appears to be in NE KS and NW MO. The SPC, not surprisingly (if you’ve been reading the blogs) has pushed the better chances of severe weather toward the north and northwest of the region.

This seems right to me at this point.

The HRRR model shows the playout. This may be close with some sort of initial wave later this evening toward the NW of the Metro.

For timing purposes this animation starts at 7PM tonight (0Z) and proceeds from there, through 1AM (6Z) and 7AM (12Z).

In terms of amounts, well like I said, don’t get too excited. There may be some downpours out there, but as mentioned, this right now looks like a classic KC split scenario where the better rains are north and south of the Metro.

So it goes… rain amounts should average between nothing and roughly 3/4″ for most. IF you get a storm you may see 1″+ or so…

In the bigger picture of things…long term isn’t looking so hot either for rain.

You can see the “mean” at the total which is averaging the 50 or so ensemble members of the EURO run. That mean is roughly 6/10″ over the coming two weeks, which isn’t much.

October averages 3 1/4″ of precipitation including 3/10″ of snow! So far KCI has had 3/10″ of precipitation this month.

The general trend after today appears to be below average temperatures in the region for most days over the coming 10 days or so.

If nothing else… it should kick start more fall colors around these parts, assuming the winds don’t take away the leaves!

The feature photo comes from Cathy Wendt of a stunning sunset!

Joe