We had our first flakes of snow on Saturday morning, some a bit more than others, even covering the ground (barely) in some parts of the Metro, especially on the south side.

The flakes, as is typical of early or late season snows, were the big fat wet ones. They’re flakes that essentially collide and stick together on their way down from the cloud. Officially up at KCI we had a trace of snow, all connected to a strong upper level feature that intensified coming into the Metro.

This week will feature a chance at another record high or two depending on the clouds and the timing of our next strong cold front on Thursday.

This will lay a layer of cold air in the region that will get reinforced every so often leading to a colder 10-day period coming; cold enough and toward the middle of the month I think snow may again be in the forecast at some point.

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Forecast

Today: Increasing clouds this afternoon and this evening. Not as mild as yesterday and breezy as well. Highs in the upper 50s

Tonight: Turning cloudy. There is a lunar eclipse in the morning after 3AM or so, but clouds may ruin our view of it. Lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Variable clouds. A small chance of a few showers with highs in the mid-upper 60s

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, windy and warmer with highs potentially 75-80. The record high is 77° set in 1964.

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Discussion

Here is information about the total lunar eclipse overnight.

The best time to see the reddish moon appear would be from around 4 AM through 5:45 AM or so. It will be rather low on the horizon as well.

The problem is cloud cover as warmer and more importantly moist air starts to come up from the south. Skies may turn mostly cloudy to cloudy. So I’m not overly optimistic that we’ll see this although there may be enough breaks in some areas to make out the moon before daybreak tomorrow morning. Look low and towards the western horizon.

This is the type of eclipse that you can watch with a naked eye.

Onwards.

The weather is going to turn on a dime later this week. The transition day will likely be Thursday at some point, likely later in the day. So over the next couple of days we start to warm up.

Wednesday and Thursday potentially could be near record territory. The record for Wednesday is 77° in 1964 and the record for Thursday is 81° in 1949. Thursday’s record may be a bit tough to get to unless the front slows down another three hours or so and we get more sunshine.

There will be strong winds will all of this as well. Gusting to 40+ mph. Clouds will play a role in this, too, and we’ll see how persistent the moisture is below 3,000 feet on both days.

Sometimes that moisture is tough to break up during this time of the year. The air just above the surface though will be very warm, so with the winds blowing, IF we can break up the clouds, it’s off to the races for temperatures.

Both the GFS and the EURO bring the front through during the evening rush on Thursday. We should get some rain with the frontal passage.

So where is the cold air coming from? Up into western and southwestern Canada. Here is the 8 AM temperatures and everything north of that blue line is below 10° this morning.

Lots of single digits up there.

Here is a bigger picture view of the temperature anomalies…

Notice the warmth back east. There were lots of record highs yesterday in the eastern US. Today numerous record highs will likely fall from Florida up to Maine.

So warmth and cold from one side of North America to the other. Here is another way to watch the anomalies get closer to the region.

GFS model temperature anomalies for 6 PM today. There are some 40° below average temperatures in some areas of SW Canada.
Same thing except for later Wednesday
Now this is for later Thursday with the cold front on the door step
This is for later Friday. The front has blown through and we’re in the colder air mass.

This transition for the northern Plains will bring a big snowstorm up there.

By the end of Friday. Some areas over 12″ in the Dakotas and parts of northern MN

So with the colder air pushing in, we’ll likely go from the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday to the 40° range on Friday, and then perhaps colder over the weekend. Temperatures between 35-40° for highs seems a reasonable first guess. Morning lows may drop into the teens.

This will also be the start of roughly 7-10 days with below average highs. What I’m curious about is that it’s going to be tough for us to be weather free (aside from the cold) for that entire timespan.

Various models are showing snow potential toward mid-month. They’re doing it different ways however. The EURO has a Alberta clipper type look to it. The GFS sort of flattens out the flow and allows a decent wave to move more west to east and actually cranks out an accumulating snow.

We would be vulnerable to something wintry towards mid-month. Whether it’s snow, a mix, we’ll see where we are by then.

Something to think about.

Also of note there is a subtropical system in November being watched in the western Atlantic today, and it may impact Florida as a subtropical storm or perhaps depending on how it organizes… hurricane before the end of the week.

The difference between a sub-tropical storm and a tropical storm is that a sub-tropical storm forms more because of a difference in air masses, cold and warm. The core of the storm is cooler than that of a typical tropical storm.

Sub-tropical storms often don’t have convection rotating around it’s core. With that said sometimes sub-tropical storms can indeed become tropical storms. As convection develops around the core of the storm, the storm’s structure starts to change and it becomes more “tropical.”

Its core warms up and voila, we’ve got ourselves a tropical system.

Sub-tropical storms are typically large with a wind field that is spread out, typically toward the north. Nicole is like that this morning. Its path will be over some very warm waters of the Bahamas, and the potential is there for it to become a hurricane before it approaches Florida.

This will likely create a large and persistent swath of onshore winds from Florida northwards to North Carolina. We are also into a period of a full moon, and that means higher tides to begin with, so the onshore flow with the higher tides mean that over the course of several days there will be beach erosion issues. There’s also the potential of flooding rains in FL is there.

Rivers are still in flood stage from everything that happened with Ian last month, so that won’t be helpful.

The feature photo is from Ben… and his drone.

Joe