Temperatures this month are running almost 3° above average through yesterday but that is only the first 11 days of the month. And while we may add a bit to though into tomorrow, that should do it with a reversal coming regarding the temperature trends over the coming 2 weeks or so.

This has been forecasted and written about for the last 10 days or so…we’ve been expecting a shift to a more arctic regime.

The question right now is how “arctic” will it get and will there be snow with this as well. We certainly will be getting cold enough for snow to fall…its a matter of getting the 2 things to work together.

Of note…is the major tendency for the models to underestimate the cold with this type of scenario setting up.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with perhaps a few areas of drizzle. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 40s today

Tonight: Rain arrives overnight with a few storms possible. Lows remain in the 40s. Windy as well.

Tomorrow: Highest rain chances are in the morning. Some locally heavy rains are possible with some embedded cracks of thunder as well. Temperatures warm up well into the 50s. Windy conditions too. During the afternoon, we should see some rapid clearing…this could be anytime from after lunch through the late afternoon.

Wednesday: More sunshine, blustery and chillier. Highs in the upper 30s to near 40°.

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Discussion:

Another cloudy start to the day around the KC region. Thankfully the temperatures in most areas are well above freezing this morning…so any fog is just wet and not frozen for most of the area.

SE winds have been increasing overnight. That helped to prevent the fog from being an issue, that also allowed temperatures to remain steady or even go up a few degrees, so we’re starting out today about as warm as we got all yesterday afternoon.

The storm that will be creating the rain is located out towards southern CA this morning.

This storm will be moving through the Desert SW today and then reorganizing across the the Rockies as it moves into the Plains tomorrow. It will help create a strong area of low pressure across the I-80 corridor tomorrow…increasing our winds…bring in moisture from the south and setting the stage for overnight rains and storms tomorrow morning.

By midday tomorrow…the surface storm will be moving through Nebraska rather slowly. As it does so the heavier rains coming east and northeast will have moved through most of the region.

There should be a noticeable dry slot developing towards the west with clearing skies. That dry slow will move through sometime after 12PM…perhaps as late as 4PM or so.

This storm will usher in colder air…nothing though too unusual though. Ahead of the cold front we should warm up into the 50s.

12PM tomorrow

By 6PM tomorrow…our storm will be in full beast mode…although we’ll be dry slotted by then. Across the northern Plains…blizzard conditions will be a major issue.

Blizzard Warnings (in orange) are posted across the western northern Plains. Surrounding those there are winter storm warnings in pink

Here is a recap…
Snow expected through early Thursday

On the warmer side of the storm…where we will be through tomorrow…this will just be rain for us.

Farther south there will be a threat of severe storms. Tonight there may be some severe weather out towards the western Plains and through western Texas.

The dynamics of the storm may be strong enough to generate rotating storms out there…although I’m not sure if things will turn tornadic…but the storms will have that capability

Then tomorrow…

Some tornadoes are possible with this as well.

So it’s a dynamic storm for sure that will only slowly move through the Midwest over the next 3 days or so. By later Thursday the storm should be across the upper Midwest.

Colder air will be funneling through the region Wednesday into Friday. I’d expect wind blown 30s for highs and morning lows in the 20° range. Averages are lower 40s and mid 20s…so roughly 5-10° below average.

What typically happens though when transitioning to a colder regime during the winter time months is we step down to the coldest air coming. In other words…this is the 1st step.

Temperatures may steady out over the weekend before the next step, usually more substantial, comes into the area…that will likely be the arctic air dumping into the Plains and it will mean business I think.

Forecast temperature anomalies look like this…for the 16th -> 21st

And here are days 10-15 (the 21st -> 26th).

My feeling is that there may be several days during Christmas week where highs struggle to get to 25°…lows may drop into the single digits. Again I won’t be surprised if we take off another 5° or so from that potential either. There will be snow to the north of us for sure…helping to keep the incoming arctic air bitterly cold.

The question is: Will there be snow locally?

I have a tough time believing that there won’t be chances…but right now there still isn’t anything concrete showing up. One issue is just how much cold air will overwhelm the pattern…in other words will there be such a push of cold air to force any potential southwards? Could Texas get snow and not us?

This remains to be seen. A rather significant upper level storm…will be in play…where it sets up, near Hudson’s Bay or near the Great Lakes will influence the potential snow situation for us next week.

The farther south it gets…the colder we are…perhaps the more suppressed the storm track gets…the closer to Hudson’s Bay it is…would allow us to remain cold…but also give us chances of getting some snow closer to the I-70 corridor.

For now…lets go with snow risks increasing starting in about a week or so. Again depending on the magnitude of cold air moving southwards…this can change.

The feature photo is from Bonnie Elphie up towards Liberty, MO over the weekend. Great illustration of the frozen fog that was out there.

Joe